Showing posts with label Islamists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Islamists. Show all posts

Friday, July 13, 2012

Good News? Revolutionary Islamists Taking Power Produces Moderation and Ends Terrorism!

By Barry Rubin

Well, now at least the debate is in the open and we can see just how questionable are the talking points of those who claim the United States has nothing to fear from Islamists. So when the New York Times publishes an article with the promising title of “Fast-Changing Arab World is Upending U.S. Assumptions,” it is sad to see that certain assumptions are not changing at all, indeed are not even discussed.

To summarize the article’s thesis, before Obama’s election, the United States thought that pro-American regimes were good and radical Islamists were bad. But now we know better.

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For decades, Obama’s predecessors supported a number of Arab governments, including those in Egypt and Tunisia but not Syria. Obama put the emphasis on engaging Syria but did not directly challenge the Egyptian and Tunisian governments until uprisings began against them in January 2011. Then he threw those two under the bus as fast as possible. But that policy did not apply to anti-American Syria, which he abandoned only in August 2011 after four months of full-scale revolt and massacres far more intense than those which made it abandon the Egyptian and Tunisian governments during the first week of demonstrations.

What makes the effort to talk seriously about the Middle East nowadays so frustrating is that the "mainstream" debate, as illustrated by the Times article, devotes no space to suggesting that perhaps the rapid rise of Islamists might be bad for the United States, that the outbreak of violence from Salafist groups or two armed cross-border attacks on Israel, or other events suggested that the threat had been underestimated.

No, not at all. When talking with “experts” and in the journalist’s editorializing the only theme is that the United States used to overestimate the Islamist threat but now it knows better!

To read the entire article click here.


Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center  and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.



Sunday, January 8, 2012

Such a "Great" Idea It Can Now Be Proclaimed But Not Criticized: Obama Supports the Muslim Brotherhood


By Barry Rubin

This is a long article but it deals with an amazing historical development

1. The U.S. government is openly supporting an anti-American, radical, authoritarian, antisemitic, anti-Christian, and anti-women rights' movements and regimes.

2. We are told that this policy is so superb that nobody can criticize it on its merits. Any criticism is in fact a partisan effort to defeat Obama at the polls.

Not only is the Obama Administration, as I’ve written for the last year, favoring radical Islamist forces--despite the fact that these are anti-Western, pro-terrorism, building dictatorships, and  openly antisemitic and anti-Christian--but now even the establishment media is admitting it.

A friend of mine said, "Oh, they are probably saying that the Brotherhood is sounding radical publicly but privately reassuring U.S. officials that they are moderate."

"No," I replied. "That's the old way of doing things when it was important to be, or at least to pretend to be, somewhat balanced. Now they say that the Brotherhood sounds moderate both publicly--ignoring all evidence to the contrary--and privately. Those who disagree are merely Republicans trying to defeat Obama in the election, and so should be ignored.  The mass media today in such matters is worse than our worst nightmares of a decade ago."

And so for the first time in U.S. history an American government, to the applause of the vast majority of the mass media, is backing an anti-American authoritarian movement. Here's how the New York Times explains it:

“The Obama administration has begun to reverse decades of mistrust and hostility as it seeks to forge closer ties with an organization [the Muslim Brotherhood] once viewed as irreconcilably opposed to United States interests.”

Any serious foreign policy analyst should see three red flags in this paragraph:

First, of course the U.S. government must deal with Egypt's government but that doesn’t mean it should publicly proclaim that the Brotherhood is a nice group and give what amounts to an unconditional endorsement of it.

Indeed, the Obama Administration and media are using a cheap trick. They confuse the proper, responsible policy of dealing with those in power wihile doing something quite beyond that: a  self-destructive policy of rushing to insist that sworn enemies of freedom and the United States are really nice guys and there's no problem with having them in power.

Click here to read the entire article

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Egypt’s Religious Establishment Takes On The Muslim Brotherhood

By Barry Rubin

In a major new development an Islamic force has arisen to challenge the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and support a more moderate regime in that country. This is a surprising opponent but the only one that could be of significance: al-Azhar University. Why is Egypt's Islamic establishment taking on Egypt's Islamists? Simple: survival and self-interest.

Read more

Thursday, June 2, 2011

The People Have Voted and Barack Obama Is NOT The Next “Muslim Idol”

This article is published on PajamasMedia.

By Barry Rubin

Wow. How can anybody continue to spout nonsense about how President Barack Obama's policies and endless attempts to make Muslims and Arabs love America are succeeding or are even useful in light of this new Pew poll.

Here are the findings. The analyses following the numbers are mine:

1. Are you favorable toward Obama?

Jordan, 13 percent; down 12 points since he took office. The Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinians (there's an overlap) hate him and the "East Bankers," that is the non-Palestinians don't trust him to support the continued existence of the monarchy.

Turkey; 10 percent; down 4 points. This reflects the efforts of the Islamist government to incite massive anti-Americanism despite the fact that Obama never criticizes and only praises the regime.

Pakistan; 11 percent, down 5 points. This is, of course, despite billions in aid he has given even though Pakistan has sponsored terrorism against India while helping al-Qaida leaders escape capture.

Lebanon; 49 percent, down 6 points. The relatively high figure here no doubt expresses the hope of Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Druze who oppose Syria and Hizballah that Obama would help them. He hasn't and won't.

Egypt; 20 percent, down 7 points. Despite his helping them to overthrow their government that was allied to the United States, there's no gratitude. The Muslim Brotherhood is about four times more popular than Obama and it stands for jihad against America. (Its leaders say so even if the American media and "experts" ignore it.)

Palestinians, 18 percent, up 3 points, which is not very impressive given all his efforts and tilt toward them.

In other words, everything Obama has done: the Cairo speech, super-sensitivity toward Islam, support for Arab revolts, distancing the United States from Israel--has had no effect, indeed, a negative effect.

2. Asked, do you sympathize with ”Islamic fundamentalists” or their opponents, Muslims replied:

Pakistan: 47 to 15. Pro-Islamist.  One day that nuclear-weaponed country might blow up in a way that would make Egypt look like a picnic.

Palestinians: 37 to 23. Pro-Islamist. Keep that in mind if there’s an election battle between Fatah and Hamas. We are constantly told that Fatah is more popular because it has raised living standards. Don't bet on that. In the Middle East, never underestimate the power of ideology and the appeal of militancy as against material self-interest.

Jordan: 35 to 37 About even. Encouraging. Note that this has been one of the quietest countries this year. Presumably this reflects strong "East Banker" support for the monarchy.

Egypt 31 to 30. About even. Encouraging but the problem is that the Islamists are well-organized and energetic while their opponents are not. No serious nationalist or moderate democratic party has been formed yet, with only about three months to go before the parliamentary election! In other words, even if they were to get, for example, "only" 30 percent of the vote they could win an even higher portion of seats, running in many cases against divided "non-Islamist" blocs and multiple rival candidates.

Turkey 24 to 45. Anti-Islamist. But perhaps the problem is that they don’t see the current government and the ruling AK party as Islamist. That's why a lot of "anti-Islamists" will vote for a stealth Islamist party in the June 12 election.

Israeli Muslims, 23 to 27. About even. The nationalists and Communists are still powerful among Arab citizens. That’s still a scary number but remember the number of "pro-Islamists" in Israel's population is only about five percent of the total (that is about one-quarter of 18 percent Muslims in the population). In these other countries the population is 90 percent (Egypt) to 99 percent (everywhere else) Muslim.

Let me paraphrase (in my own words) Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the fabulously popular Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guru: Usama bin-Ladin was stupid. Of course we should demand and run in elections because we’ll win.

On the U.S. and European side, no amount of Islamophilia--aid money, flattery, moving away from Israel, helping people overthrow pro-Western regimes, praising Muslim accomplishments in space exploration, and so on--will change the Middle East political scene or even the public opinion polls in a positive direction.

There’s lots more of interest in the poll.

Note: The title is a play on the "American Idol" slogan. And yes I'm aware of the irony in the phrase "Muslim Idol." But, of course, Muslims favor the breaking of idols.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/ His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org. His PajamaMedia columns are mirrored and other articles available at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Surprise! Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Seeks Islamist Dictatorship

This article is published in PajamasMedia. The text is presented here for your convenience.

By Barry Rubin

It shouldn't be a surprise that the Muslim Brotherhood wants an Islamist state in Egypt. After all, that's been its goal since the organization was founded almost 75 years ago, a goal from which it is never deviated for one minute.

Yet some people are shocked, shocked, to see revolutionary Islamism going on. Still, something positive may come out of the Brotherhood leaders' loose lips.


Two Brotherhood leaders, Mahmoud Ezzat, the deputy Supreme Guide, and Saad al-Husseiny, announced the group's two-stage strategy, though I'm expressing it here in my words:

Phase one: Use its new Freedom and Justice Party to build a broad base of support. Do well in a couple of elections. take 30 percent of parliament, lay the basis for an Islamist state in the new constitution.

Phase two: Use anti-Western and anti-Israel demagoguery, preach Islamism in every possible way, indoctrinate young people, watch as a more secular regime fails, and then establish a radical Islamist state with the full array of special punishments, killing of converts, jihad against Israel, etc.


As always happens with Islamists, success breeds arrogance. The Brotherhood was trying to pretend moderation--a tactic that has worked brilliantly with Western journalists--and keep its mouth shut. But once things started looking good, its leaders couldn't stop themselves from bragging about their future total triumph.

Meanwhile, France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has announced that France is ready to talk to all Muslim Brotherhood groups. There are two particular problems here. First, using logic to analyze the foreign minister's position goes like this:

--France's government says that the country will talk with all groups that have renounced violence.

--France's government says that the country will talk with all Muslim Brotherhood groups.

--Therefore, France's government says that all Muslim Brotherhood groups have renounced violence.

The last statement is, of course, untrue. The Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhoods--and one coud add the Palestinian Brotherhood, better known as Hamas, too--have not renounced violence. They openly and daily advocate violence against Israel, and the Egyptian Brotherhood has also called for jihad against the United States.

Concluding that the Brotherhood is now a pacifist group thus totally discounts any threat from it.

Second, Juppe said--in words that echoed Obama--that France was fooled by Arab leaders (Egypt? Jordan? Saudi Arabia?) who said that revolutionary Islamists were a threat. "We believed them," Juppe explained, "and now we can see the result."

So the Brotherhood is non-violent, non-threatening, and doesn't seek a radical Islamist regime. That's a basis for disaster if used by Western policy to set strategy in the Middle East. And that's precisely what most Western decisionmakers seem to think. 

But something good may come from this. With the Brotherhood acting arrogant, other groups are uniting against it. This candor might well weaken the Islamists over the next year or so, though their longer-term prospects for seizing power are still very real.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Why Policy Forces the U.S. Government to Become the Muslim Brotherhood's Press Agent

By Barry Rubin

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told the Senate Select Intelligence Committee recently that he thinks the Muslim Brotherhood is against the Egypt-Israel peace treaty but isn't really sure and also doesn't know much about the Muslim Brotherhood.

Clapper earlier famously said that the Muslim Brotherhood is a secular and moderate group. Is Clapper that stupid? Well, he was stupid to go so far as to say that the Brotherhood is secular but the rest seems policy-oriented.

Remember that the Obama Administration earlier said (without being asked) that it would accept the Brotherhood in an Egyptian government if it met two very vague conditions--rejecting violence and supported democratic goals--which U.S. officials said had already been fulfilled. Since everyone seems to think that the Brotherhood has somehow already rejected violence (it hasn't, it just doesn't use violence within Egypt and thinks that terrorism abroad is just dandy), this shouldn't be much of a barrier.

Policy often reasons backward. Since the Obama Administration has accepted a Brotherhood role in government, it cannot say that the Brotherhood is radical Islamist, pro-terrorist, antisemitic, seeks to wipe Israel off the map, and will do everything it can to help Hamas. Because if the U.S. government does say such things the next question from a member of Congress or the media would be: then how could you possibly accept its role in Egypt's government and seek a dialogue with such a group?

So the policy must make the analysis stupid. Of course, this is a major mistake by the Obama Administration. It has painted itself into a corner in which it cannot say anything bad about the Brotherhood or try to urge (or even help) the Egyptian military to keep the Brotherhood out of power. It and the supportive media also thus need to suppress quoting what the Brotherhood says in Arabic about such things.

In short, the U.S. government has paralyzed itself from doing anything to combat or even publicize the greatest threat to democracy and stability in Egypt. Or, to put it another way, U.S policy scored an "own goal" and thinks it won the game.

Note: "own goal" is a football (soccer) term for when a team accidentally kicks the ball into its own net, thus giving a point to the other team. The closest American football equivalent would be a safety, though in this case it is a reduction of safety for everyone in America and everyone in the Middle East.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Egypt: With Ludicrous Lies The Muslim Brotherhood Shows Its Contempt for West

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By Barry Rubin

I'm fascinated by the op-ed in the New York Times international edition by Tariq Ramadan. It is so amazingly false and puts forward such ludicrous claims that the whole thing seems to shout out:

You people in the West are so stupid and such huge suckers that you'll swallow anything!

I admire good craftsmanship. If Ramadan--who, let's remember, is no Muslim Brotherhood street tough but supposedly the most sophisticated Islamic intellectual in the world as well as being a professor at major universities--had produced a very clever item of disinformation, I would have been impressed. Yet the absurdity he wrote shows his contempt for the audience. I've never seen anything more thoroughly reveal his phoniness.

While I don't want to do a word-for-word analysis I can start by pointing out that he does not properly state the date of the Muslim Brotherhood's founding by his grandfather, 1928, but puts it vaguely in the 1930s.

Of course he skips over his grandfather's collaboration with the Nazis, but also--as our forthcoming book Germany, The Nazis, and The Making of the Modern Middle East, his father's close work with the recently escaped war criminal Amin al-Husaini, help in fomenting terrorist violence, and building of a revolutionary Islamist movement in Europe.

Ramadan cannot even admit that the Brotherhead hated Zionism but pretends that it was only objecting to the actions of the two  radical Zionist militias, the Irgun and the Fighters for the Freedom of Israel, in the late 1940s. Of course he won't admit that it is a virulently antisemitic group, but what Arab of the last sixty years tried to pretend they weren't anti-Zionists from the start?

It isn't enough for Ramadan to say that the Brotherhood hasn't used violence for 60 years but he insists it never used violence ever, even though its terrorist unit's activities are well known and it assassinated an Egyptian prime minister. Of course, the Brotherhood has never been pacifist (it supports terrorism abroad; incites violence at times and has helped some assassinations at home; and has been so quiet within Egypt because otherwise it knew the regime would hit it upside the head).  But as I noted in each case Ramadan goes beyond the clever, moderate lie to the all-out incredibly extreme falsehood.

And so on through the article. Let me be clear here: Anyone who has studied modern Middle East history, certainly every professor of Middle East studies in North America, knows that Ramadan has told a series of whoppers. Will a single one say so?

Consequently, by the time he gets to his apologia about how moderate the Brotherhood is today, his credibility should be totally destroyed. When I finished this article I was even more skeptical about the Brotherhood's claims than I was before. And if you read this blog you'll agree I'm about the most skeptical person in the world on this subject.

I'm waiting to see if others do detailed critiques of this article. How could the New York Times publish such nonsense? Couldn't the editors have told him privately: We don't mind if you prevaricate, but couldn't it be more credible so our readers won't laugh at us. This is on the level of how an 18-year-old Muslim Brotherhood street tough might explain these issues.

And then I realized what was happening. I call it "the test," a frequent experience in the Middle East. When you meet someone they try a silly lie on you. If you catch it, they are more frank and respect you more. If you don't, they treat you like an idiot and tell you the utmost garbage.

An example. When I was meeting a PLO leader in Tunis in 1990, the first thing he said to me when I came into the room was, "Do you know that on the wall of Israel's parliament there is a map showing Israel claims most of the Middle East."

If I said, "Oh, really?" or agreed with him, he knew that I was a useful idiot. Instead, I said: "Look, it's 1990, the modern world [how little did I know then what things would be like two decades later!] You know it's not true; I know it's not true. So let's talk seriously or I might as well leave now." (Yes, that's really what I said.)

After that, he treated me respectfully and we had an interesting discussion. For years afterward he sent me greeting cards on major Jewish holidays. (No kidding.)

So Ramadan and the Brotherhood put the New York Times and the American elite to the test. And they failed miserably.  Lenin once said that the bourgeoisie was so dumb or venal that it would sell the revolutionaries the rope to hang them.

The Islamists are learning that Western intellectuals and policymakers will do far more: become the press agents of those who want to hang them.

A reader wrote me: "The Tariq Ramadan's aren't interested in facts. What they're interested in is in "getting out" their propaganda message."

My response? "That the Tariq Ramadan's aren't interested in facts doesn't surprise me. That the New York Times isn't interested in facts does.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The GLORIA Center's site is http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Tunisia and "Moderate Islamists": This Says It All

By Barry Rubin

It's true that Tunisia's Islamist movement is less radical than that in other Arab countries. But it really says a lot that Rachid Ghanouchi, the most important Tunisian Islamist, who has just returned home after a long exile thanks to the anti-regime revolt there, can say:

"Why do people want to compare me to Bin Laden or Khomeini, when I am
closer to [Turkish Prime Minister] Erdogan?"

So Ghanouchi is not going to attack New York and Washington, nor is he going to try to get nuclear weapons, spread Islamist revolution, and help take over Lebanon. That's the good news.

If he's like Erdogan, however, he might just align with Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah, along with the possible new radical Egyptian regime, while subverting U.S. policy.

But this is a good point. The threat is not only from reckless states obsessed with spreading Islamist revolution but also  hostile states that take part in that bloc. This is a more likely outcome for Egypt than a Muslim Brotherhood Jihadi state.

But of course the Islamists are far from being able to take any power in Tunisia and that country has a real chance of succeeding at democracy.

So let's put it this way:

There are states that are active on the anti-American, anti-Western, anti-Israel, revolutionary Islamist side: Iran, Syria, Lebanon under Hizballah, and the Gaza Strip under Hamas.

And there are states following the Turkish regime model that merely tilt more toward the new Islamist bloc. A post-Mubarak regime Egypt might well be in this category but with a specific mission in trying to help Hamas and the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood overthrow the Palestinian Authority and the Jordanian monarchy, respectively, and try to wipe Israel off the map.

As the Western mass media tell us how wonderfully things are going the entire U.S. and Western position in the Middle East is going down the drain.

Feel better now?

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Things You Need To Know About the Middle East, December 2010

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By Barry Rubin

The Egyptian government so arranged the parliamentary elections that the share of seats held by the opposition declined from 20 percent for Muslim Brotherhood supporters alone to only 3 percent for all of the half-dozen opposition parties put together. In other words, the regime didn't just steal the election--which it does regularly--it over-stole the balloting. One can sympathize with the idea of the current government of President Husni Mubarak not wanting to let the revolutionary Islamists take power, and one can understand how the regime wants a nice stable situation for the succession next year presumably to Husni's son Gamal.

But they overdid it.

What is worrisome here is that by showing the Muslim Brotherhood that even if it bows its head to repression (with 1,000 members arrested in the days leading up to the election) it won't even get the tiniest crumbs from the government. And that seems to mean--judging from Supreme Guide Muhammad Badi's hardline statements even earlier (see here and here)--that the group may step up efforts to overthrow the regime. There's no question of violence in the near-term, but what about four or six or eight years down the road, especially if Gamal falters as president or the ruling elite splits in factional disputes.

Meanwhile, despite the fact that we've been told by some that the Brotherhoods are really moderate and deserve to be engaged in dialogue, the Jordanian branch has now called on Arab governments to send their armies to Afghanistan in a Jihad to kill Americans and other NATO forces there . When one actually looks at the materials in Arabic of the Egyptian or Jordanian Brotherhoods or their sister organization Hamas, one finds an extremist rhetoric not that much different from al-Qaida's ideology, though not that group's tactics...yet.

And speaking of false moderates, check out the latest issue of the Palestinian Authority's newspaper, Al-Hayat al-Jadida, which tells readers that Israel is "a country whose aim is destruction and ruin of humanity...which disseminates destruction, ruin and weapons in the world...which acts to kill nations, to threaten them and to occupy their land...[and] which acts to disseminate the culture of hatred and racism among human beings."

The fact that this is in an article about sports symbolizes the unending and comprehensive "culture of hatred" disseminated by the PA among its own people, thus making real peace somewhere between incredibly unlikely and impossible.

Here's something worth checking out if you have any interest in Muslim communities in Europe, a serious effort to provide figures for the size of the population in different countries done by Pew.

To use the example of the UK, the Pew study estimates Muslims there at 2.9 million (4.6 percent of the population) while the previous British government estimate was 1.6 million in the 2001 census. This constitutes a 74 percent increase in nine years. The largest communities are in Germany (4.1 million) and France (almost 3.6 million). By percentages, the largest proportion of Muslims are in Belgium, France, Austria and Switzerland (almost 6 percent). The Netherlands, Sweden, and Germany are about 5 percent. And of course these numbers are rising rapidly.

Meanwhile, 200 Jewish families have left Belgium, with increasing emigration also from Holland, and presumably other countries. The situation is also deteriorating in the Netherlands where a sympathetic leading politician has said that recognizable Jews will probably not be able to remain in the country. One factor there is very hostile media coverage of Israel, including the echoing of demonizing stories and Hamas' propaganda. Here's Melanie Phillips on the situation in the UK regarding Islamism and these issues.

Finally, few have noticed that in September 2008 the Iranian parliament passed a law making conversion away from Islam punishable by death for men and life imprisonment for women. For information on repression of Christians in Iran, see the following sites:

http://payvand.com/blog/blog/2010/05/29/amnesty-international-report-2010-on-iran
http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-29426
http://www.rferl.org/content/Two_Iranian_Christians_May_Face_Execution_For_Apostasy/1779217.htML
http://www.worthynews.com/9337-iranian-christians-threatened-by-death-penalty
http://www.persecution.net/ir-2010-12-09.htm
http://www.iranpresswatch.org/post/2074
http://www.opendoorsuk.org/resources/iran/background.php

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Political Lobbying By Murder: That's What Islamists Do

By Barry Rubin

A woman is on trial in London for having stabbed her member of Parliament, Stephen Timms, twice. She made an appointment to see Timms at the office where he helps constituents, last May. It has emerged from the trial that she tried to kill him because he had supported the Iraq war.

What could her motive possibly be? She isn't even from Iraq. The BBC gives no hint of what political allegiance or motive of Roshonara Choudhry. There is a picture of her in the Guardian wearing a headscarf. Hm. The Guardian explains that she is, "A gifted student from a humble background ...Roshonara Choudhry was everything a society could want a citizen to be."

Well, almost everything. She just happened--though you won't find it out from the BBC--to have become a revolutionary Islamist. The Guardian tells us she was reading material on her computer from al-Qaida but she had no known links with any groups. Choudhry was convicted and sentenced to life, with the possibility of parole.
At the sentencing, radical Islamist demonstrators, some of them in the courtroom, cursed the judge and cried for vengeance.
This case has not drawn much international attention but it should. In the late nineteenth century revolutionaries in a number of countries--especially in Russia--began a campaign of assassinations that endured for decades. Many political leaders were murdered, as well as scores of bystanders.
Violence and murder are the main methods by which revolutionary Islamists lobby governments. Is this going to be the beginning of such attacks, which might reach the point where they have an intimidating effect? This is, of course, speculative but is worth considering.

Note that, as in the Choudhry case, an organization and a complex plan is not necessary. Merely activating individuals through propaganda is sufficient. This seems to be the origin of the would-be Times Square bomber and the man recently arrested for planning to blow up Washington subway trains. In phase one, they are radicalized by revolutionary Islamist arguments. This might lead to a second phase in which they get into contact with terrorist groups and receive training or they might act alone or as members of a small local cell.

The irony is that Timms had been particularly friendly toward Islamists, even in the context of the Labour Party, and had spoken at a big Islamist front group conference that also featured some very hardline speakers preaching hatred. When approached by people trying to warn him about this kind of thing, he was genuinely startled, having no idea about the implications of this kind of behavior.

Now, remember the framework of this story. Timms met Choudhry because he wanted to help her. He saw her smile before lunging at him and thought she wanted to shake hands.

What a perfect metaphor for the attitude of most Western leaders toward radical Islamists! Remember President Barack Obama's first television interview: "If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us."

Watch out for that clenched fist. Watch out equally for that extended hand.




Sunday, October 31, 2010

The Middle East: Where Crazed Extremism is the Average

By Barry Rubin

This is the kind of thing that really characterizes the situation in the Middle East. Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group even more radical than Hamas, held a rally in Gaza City which drew an estimated 100,000 people out of a population of approximately two million.

Since the Gaza population has a number of children far higher than the United States and women’s participation would also be limited, this is equivalent to a rally in the United States of, say, twenty million people.

Of course, this comparison would have to be adjusted for the short distances people would need to travel to participate in a Gaza rally, but the point is valid nonetheless. A demonstration for an extremist group in Gaza can draw something like forty times more than any possible collective activity of this sort might obtain in the United States.

Imagine how many people the Hamas regime might mobilize for a demonstration if it tried. Remember, this rally is in support of a movement that is exclusively terrorist, lacking even the comforting veneer of social welfare programs that lets groups like Hamas fool the most naive Westerners. Islamic Jihad stands for genocide against Jews, the destruction of Israel, no negotiations ever.

Not that Hamas, of course, is any great moderate force. Indeed, Hamas officials spoke at the rally, and often use Islamic Jihad as a cover. Oh, they’d say, we’re observing the ceasefire but we just can’t stop—wink, wink, nudge, nudge—Islamic Jihad from launching those rockets.

Think of the world view held by the participants and the huge number of Hamas and even Fatah supporters regarding how things work, what America is like, what Israel is like, or the most basic concepts of logic and reality held by Westerners. There is an enormous gulf here which will only be bridged many decades from now.


The demonstrators chanted, “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” These aren’t metaphors: They mean it. So do Hamas, Hizballah, the Muslim Brotherhood groups, and many others. In fact, so do the governments of Iran, Syria, and several more.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Muslims Who Don't Want to Live Under Islamist Dictatorships Urge: Help Us By Telling The Truth

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By Barry Rubin

I constantly receive mail and contacts of various kinds from Arabs, Iranians, Pakistanis, and Turks--among others--about how much they like my writing. In fact, many of my ideas and inspiration comes from conversations with these people. You'd be surprised to hear some of the names, countries, and positions of those involved in these dialogues.

It's a complex issue but to put it simply: those in the West may romanticize or refuse to criticize radical Islamists and Middle East dictatorships but that doesn't exactly thrill those who live under these regimes or who fear seeing their countries being taken over by extremists who repress and maybe will kill them.

I wrote an entire book about this situation and these people, The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East, John Wiley Publishers (2005). That book, and other things I've written, explains both my tremendous sympathy for these liberals and reformers as well as why I didn't advocate a policy based on the belief that the United States could democratize the region or solve the problems of these societies by overthrowing the ruling regimes.

During my last speaking trip, which usually focused on the battle between Islamists and nationalists, there were Arabs or Iranians present at each event who enthusiastically endorsed what I said. In one case, a Palestinian wearing a very large kafiyah sat in the front row nodding at my main points. Afterward, he explained that he was a Palestinian Authority supporter who hated Hamas and thought that group was ruining his people's chance for ever getting their own independent state.

And don't even get me started on Iran, where a large majority opposes the current regime, and Turkey, where an even larger majority opposes the current regime. These people, almost all of them Muslims, are anti-Islamist and prefer a democratic state. They may not be "moderate Muslims," that is religious reformers, but they are Muslims who are moderates. They don't respect Westerners smug in their "virtues" of being so Islamophilic, tolerant, and "pro-Arab" as to saddle the poor victimized Middle Easterners with horrible, repressive regimes and permanent violence.

Most of the people who hate and oppose revolutionary Islamism can be most accurately called conservative traditionalists. They prefer Islam as it was practiced before the age of Iran's revolution and Usama bin Ladin. They don't like Israel and have plenty of complaints about the West (though there are also things they like about both) but they don't want to go to war or spend the next century seeking revenge either.

A minority of them are real democrats, courageous people who know what their countries need to do in order to get out of their current morass. The majority is just fed up with terrorism, ideology, dictatorship, economic impoverishment, social stagnation, and using Zionism or imperialism as excuses for all of the above. The Western "sympathizers" who endorse every reactionary cultural and political tendency as "authentic" do them no favors.

For example, in response to this article I wrote pointing out that the amount of hatred and incitement coming from the Muslim majority world far exceeds that in the West or Israel, I received two letters from Middle Eastern Muslim readers.

One, from an Iranian, noted: "Best article yet! keep it up!"

And another reader--presumably Iranian--writes to me as follows:

"I read your Rubin Reports with great pleasure and anticipation. I find you are among the very few Westerners who are not giving into political correctness vis-à-vis Islamic terrorism, the new fascism. The dance of appeasing Muslim radicals (or the rest) is most dangerous and will lead to diminished freedom and the end of the rule of rational law.

"I fear so much that my grandchildren will be subject to a totalitarian theocratic rule that I search for a way out of [this situation to live] in the West. There are majorities in some places in the Middle East—Iran, the prime example—who are fed up with the ideology of hate and of death and of darkness, and long for peace and freedom and happiness. We are fed up with antisemitic people and governments and we want to rescue reason from theocratic dogma.

"Thank you for what you do. I hope Westerners read your work and pay heed. The alternative is hatred, violence, and the rule of evil."

Note the implications of those last three points;

Hatred by Islamists and radicals: Not only of the West and Israel, Christians, Jews, or Bahais, but also of Muslims who have a different interpretation of their religion or who are "too" secular, and also at times of various other groups who are Muslims (Berbers, Kurds, Shia, Sudanese Africans).

Violence: Not only against Westerners and Israelis plus local Christians but also against all of the groups mentioned in the previous paragraph plus women who deviate from what the Islamists want, homosexuals, and others.

The Rule of Evil: Not over Westerners but over those Middle Easterners (again, mostly Muslim) who live under such regimes or will be drowned in revolutions in the uture.

So, if one supports Islamists like those who rule Iran and the Gaza Strip, pro-Islamist (abroad) dictatorships like that in Syria, those who are close to ruling Lebanon, and revolutionaries who want to impose Islamist totalitarian regimes, is this "pro-Muslim" or "pro-Arab?" Presumably, it is like saying that backing the Nazis made one a friend of the German people or supporting the Stalinists proved that one loved the Russian people and those in its satellite states.

Or perhaps everyone who doesn't want to be ruled by Iran, the Taliban, Hamas, Hizballah, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other assorted dictatorships are Islamophobic or racist?

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Which Side Are You On?: The "Moderate Muslim" Litmus Tests

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By Barry Rubin

In the controversy over the "Ground Zero" mosque in New York and other issues, Muslims are often asked if they condemn terrorism, Iran, or Hamas and other revolutionary Islamist groups, along with other questions. The idea is to determine whether they are moderates or radicals. Each of these questions also has an unnoticed "internal Muslim" aspect as well that makes them all the more important.

Yet this question is often placed in the context of whether or not they support murderous attacks on non-Muslims or calls to wipe out Israel. This is a valid consideration, but it misses a key point about why Islamic activists should be asked and how they should answer such questions.

After all, those whom the moderates are being asked to condemn are revolutionary Islamist groups or countries. If you don't condemn them you are in effect accepting their program for a radical transformation of Muslim-majority (and even other) countries, the imposition of a radical interpretation of Sharia law on every aspect of society.  If you are a nationalist, or a liberal, or a moderate Islamist the prospect of your enemies seizing state power and perhaps repressing you would be a most upsetting prospect.

In other words, a moderate would condemn these groups and Iran not for the sake of Israel or the West, but for the sake of his own people and anti-Islamist cause. It is impossible to be neutral on this point: Do you want to live (or see most other Muslims live) under a caliphate, a theocratic dictatorship, a repressive regime as exists in Iran or the Taliban's Afghanistan or not?

The request to show yourself to be moderate is not a demand for some concession but to declare that you don't want to see Muslims as well as others subjected to an authoritarian, would-be totalitarian regime that crushes all dissent, murders critics, persecutes Christians and Jews, and outlaws alternative interpretations of Islam, among other things.

Would a moderate like to see what should be his worst nightmare triumph, interpreting Islam in its own extremist way, and destroying any chance that he might realize his vision? Well, he could if his vision is roughly the same as theirs.

Another question asked--Do you condemn terrorism not only against "innocent Muslims" but also non-Muslims?--has a similar twist. Again, by refusing to reject terrorism against Jews, Christians, and (in Thailand, at least) Buddhists, the political activist is accepting some types of deliberate murder of civilians.

Yet this is not the only issue going on here. An "innocent Muslim" is a regular person, a bystander. But that would not include government officials or employees or those deemed too secular or liberal, people revolutionary Islamists want to kill.  Perhaps this category of the non-innocent might include whole Muslim communities (Shias in Iraq, for example; African groups in Sudan). Moreover, failing to condemn all terrorism shows either a misunderstanding (or support) for the anarchy and destruction that this tactic imposes on Muslim-majority societies. In other words, it shows both ruthlessness toward one's own people and indicates that one is on the side of the radical Islamists.

Still another indicator is adherence to the Muslim Brotherhood or its front groups. It is somewhat understandable but ultimately quite foolish to focus only on the threat of currently violent terrorist Islamist groups, notably al-Qaida, to the exclusion of everyone else (even Hizballah or elements of the Taliban, according to some Obama Administration officials.)

The Brotherhood is more dangerous precisely because it takes a long-term, tactically flexible view that is more likely to be effective in both Muslim-majority and Western states. Moreover, for the Brotherhood, violence is merely a matter of timing, wrong to engage in only because the mass base has not yet been prepared and success not assured.

One of the Brotherhood's tactics is dissimulation or to use the plainer word: lying. Its agents speak of dialogue, moderation, and bridge-building to the suckers (I mean interlocutors) while indoctrinating their Muslim audience with anti-Americanism, anti-Westernism, anti-Christianism, and antisemitism. Many of them have mastered the rhetoric of human rights and victimhood.

And they have become used to the fact that few in the West will look deeply into their doctrine, what is said in Arabic or other non-Western languages, or political positions. Thus, in most of the Muslim-majority world it is between incredibly difficult and impossible to build or repair any church or synagogue (according to Islamic doctrine which sought to ensure that non-Muslim institutions literally collapsed).

Does this mean that Western societies should do the same to Muslims? No, but it means that these societies should inquire into their "moderate" friends views on the issue, pressing for them to protest and demand change in the countries their religion controls (they won't) and to cover such matters in schools and media.

A final point of great importance. There are relatively few “moderate Muslims” but there are millions of Muslims who are relatively moderate. The former term refers to people whose main identity is as a Muslim and who explicitly want to reform normative Islam. In contrast, the latter are those who are equally Muslim in faith but  whose primary identity formed by some ethnic (Turkish, Arab, Persian, Kurd, Berber, etc.) or national (Egyptian, Indonesian, Indian, Moroccan) loyalty and who practice Islam in traditional, non-Islamist ways.

Almost a decade after the September 11 attacks, it is remarkable to see how primitive, censored, and misinformed is the Western debate over Islam and Islamism. Yet this is an issue of the greatest importance in the world today. The fate of the Middle East and the future of the West hangs in the balance.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org and of his blog, Rubin Reports, at http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Hizballah Prepares for War Based on Using Civilians as Shields

By Barry Rubin

The Israeli army has released for the first time sensitive intelligence data on how Hizballah is digging into southern Lebanon. The deliberate strategy is to store weapons and put defense positions right next to civilian houses. In the event of a war, Israel will have to choose between giving Hizballah a tremendous advantage or killing civilians.

Or as a Lebanese person remarked privately, "Hizballah is painting a big fat target on all the Shi'a down there."

This strategy is the fruit of the world reaction to the 2008-2009 war in the Gaza Strip when Hamas was rewarded for using civilians as human shields. Despite the care Israel took to avoid damaging civilian property or endangering civilian lives, there was a strong anti-Israel response. Given that behavior, others will no doubt follow this approach in future, thus leading to more suffering for civilians and stronger radical totalitarian movements, which will also oppress people where they hold power.

Remember this material when Hizballah sets off the next war and the inevitable media and other complaints against Israel begin: These condemnations will be based on--and will, in turn---reinforce a cynical and vicious deliberate effort by terrorist groups.

By the way, remember how the UN promised Israel in 2006 to keep Hizballah out of southern Lebanon with a reinforced UNIFIL force? What a joke. Hizballah does whatever it wants and no one interferes.

In the Strategic World Cup that's Hizballah 1, World 0. It's also a big zero for international guarantees to Israel. Remember that as well when you next hear that Israel "defies" the "international community" and refuses to put its survival into the hands of others who make big promises and then break them.

By making these points I am not suggesting there will be a war between Israel and Hizballah in the near future, certainly not this year. It is quite possible that Iran wants to hold Hizballah in reserve to use only if Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. At any rate, Hizballah is too busy taking over Lebanon to want a war for the next year or possibly two.

You can read about the intelligence data on southern Lebanon here and here. Iran has also named a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer named Hossein Mahadavi to be a liaison and perhaps in part commander of Hizballah.

Friday, May 28, 2010

President Obama's Ayatollah Explains Islam to the Muslims

By Barry Rubin

The president’s advisor on terrorism, John Brennan, who I’ve dubbed the worst foreign policy official in the Obama Administration, has made a new statement that is very interesting and deserves serious debate, not just dismissal or endorsement.

You can see his basic line as it has developed, with full administration support, over the last year:

“Nor does President Obama see this challenge as a fight against jihadists. Describing terrorists in this way, using the legitimate term `jihad,' which means to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal, risks giving these murderers the religious legitimacy they desperately seek but in no way deserve. Worse, it risks reinforcing the idea that the United States is somehow at war with Islam itself. And this is why President Obama has confronted this perception directly and forcefully in its speeches to Muslim audiences, declaring that America is not and never will be at war with Islam.”

Brennan also said that the United States is not at war with “terror,” which is merely a tactic, but only with al-Qaida.

There are two issues here:

1. Should U.S. strategy be to make a theological judgment about the relationship of Jihad and Islam, deciding what is the "proper" Muslim stance?

2. Should U.S. strategy be to declare that there is a war only with al-Qaida and not with terrorism or anyone else?

Regarding the first point, for Ayatollah Brennan to define jihad as only peaceful and for “a moral goal” is ludicrous. All Muslims know that, at a minimum, jihad also includes a violent struggle for conquest as its main component, even if they also believe there is an internal moral aspect to it or a non-violent jihad (a jihad to be a better person; a jihad against illiteracy). Brennan saying otherwise isn’t going to change any minds or win over any hearts.

In English there's a mocking saying about one trying to be "more Catholic than the Pope." Isn't Brennan trying to prove he is a better understander of Islam than Usama bin Ladin? Should we say speak of those-who-claim-to-be-Jihadists-but-aren't?

At any rate, the key point made by al-Qaida and other contemporary Jihadists is that they are waging a “defensive jihad” to save Muslims from a Western “Crusader-Zionist” attempt to destroy Islam. They define this as “a holy struggle for a moral goal.” At times, they are more open about the use of Jihad to gather all Muslims into a single state ruled by a caliph.

So it is reasonable to have a U.S. policy that doesn’t define the enemy as Jihad; it is mandatory to have a U.S. policy that doesn’t define the enemy as Islam (President George W. Bush set that theme on September 12, 2001) but it is ridiculous for the United States to compete with imams and ayatollahs in defining Islam. And this is especially true when the specific claims made about Islam are so obviously nonsensical.

And doesn't this whole approach seem to be the very act of aggression against Islam to many Muslims, a war on Islam, that Brennan and the Obama administration want to avoid? After all, if the U.S. government sets itself up as interpreter of Islam that really does seem like a threat to reshape Islam in an American image. Already, radicals, not all of them Jihadists, proclaim that there is a battle between “proper Islam” and “American Islam.” And that tactic is certainly used to enhance the "religious legitimacy" of the revolutionaries.

If U.S. policy wants to deal with this issue, it should suffice to cite a long list of Muslim theologians and leaders who disagree with al-Qaida and denounce it as proof that the group does not deserve the religious legitimacy it claims. The U.S. government should cite the casualty figures of Muslims murdered by the revolutionary Islamists, the cost in living standards, and overall suffering produced by them.

Regarding the point as to who is the enemy, an argument can certainly be made for narrowing the conflict in terms of definition. Having fewer enemies is preferable. Yet doesn't this pose of a U.S versus al-Qaida war send a signal to all attacked by anyone not part of al-Qaida that the United States is standing on the sidelines.

The United States isn't "at war" with Hamas, Hizballah, or revolutionary Islamists who attack Indonesia, India, Israel, the Philippines, Thailand, and other countries. But should it go out of its way publicly to define them as non-enemies, even when these groups have killed Americans? In fact, Brennan has repeatedly defined Hizballah, the group which has murdered--if one omits September 11--more Americans than al-Qaida to be not terrorist at all in large part.

And what about the Taliban in Afghanistan? Why are U.S. troops there if it isn’t an enemy? All that would be needed are small numbers of Special Forces’ soldiers seeking to kill al-Qaida leaders in hiding.

In discussing all these issues, U.S. policy should stick to national definitions. It was wrong of Obama to make a pitch to Muslims in the Cairo speech. After all, if the great conflict is between those seeking a national and those seeking a religious definition of their identity, why should the United States undermine this? Let it speak instead of Iraqis and Egyptians, Saudis and Pakistanis.

By the way, a further convenience here is that technically al-Qaida doesn’t have state sponsors. Yet Syria and Iran have been enablers of al-Qaida, most notably in Iraq, and Pakistan has done so in Afghanistan. Part of the administration’s effort here is to provide an excuse not to deal with these aspects of the problem.

It is better not to have a simplistic definition at all. The United States is at war with those who have attacked it. The United States is in conflict with those who are trying to destroy its allies—whether it be Israel or Saudi Arabia, Thailand or India--since, if that isn’t true, in what sense are those countries allies?

There is also a hint of a sleazy side-stepping plea: Don't attack me, attack those Lebanese and Israelis, Thai Buddhists and Filipino or Nigerian or Sudanese Christians! It is a tactic reminiscent of those "anti-terrorist" Muslim clerics whose opposition to murder is restricted to proclaiming that those who kill fellow Muslims are not proper jihadists, where as those who kill non-Muslims are A-OK.

What Brennan does have in mind, and says so elsewhere, is something prevalent in administration thinking: drawing a line between good and bad guys, moderates and radicals, in which those who seek to overthrow allied countries or destroy U.S. interests are redefined as good guy moderates. Like those nice clean-cut Muslim Brotherhood revolutionaries who, for tactical reasons, believe the revolution requires mass organizing today, leaving armed struggle for some future stage.

You don’t have to be at war with Iran and Syria, Hamas and Hizballah, the Turkish regime and various others to recognize that they are in fact enemies of the United States. You don't have to see groups like the Muslim Brotherhood blow up things to know that they, too, are enemies of the United States.

And no verbal gymnastics will change that fact; they will only weaken the U.S. ability to deal with the struggle at hand.

Friday, March 19, 2010

CAIR Attacks Book Series on Islam; Unable to Find Anything "Wrong" It Fabricates Complaints

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By Barry Rubin

I’ve heard a lot about the methods of CAIR, and of course we are all familiar with the incredible intimidation (combined with clever strategy) used against anyone who writes about Islam in any way other than simpering reverence. But experiencing it is another matter, showing the intense dishonesty with which such campaigns are conducted. On the positive side, though, there may be some signs that media gullibility on this matter may be declining.

Offered an opportunity to write and edit some books for the Mason Crest series on Islam, I welcomed the challenge of producing materials that combined proper scholarship, due respect, and honest inquiry on the subject, the same approach taken to any other subject. What we wanted to do was in sharp contrast to the fawning narratives that do things like—an actual case—omit any mention of Muslim-ruled states  involvement in the African slave trade while praising them for introducing the clock into the area. Equally, though, we were careful not to put in anything unfairly derogatory about Islam as a religion or about its adherents.

The goal was to create balanced books that were easily accessible to American students.

The results were quite pleasing. Ten books were produced totaling 640 pages and with lavish illustrations, well-received and ordered by many schools.

Then CAIR sought to attack this book series. CAIR seems to be, according to legal documents and documented reports, a creation of the Muslim Brotherhood and a group many of whose officials have been prosecuted and convicted for involvement with terrorist groups. CAIR, then, is not a defense organization for Muslims but an advocacy organization for revolutionary Islamist groups.

That’s important to note because its real agenda is to prevent any critique of Islamism, the ideology of those trying to overthrow every regime in the Arabic-speaking world and many more as well.

CAIR’s approach makes clear its lack of understanding the fact that there exists a set of professional scholarly ethics and principles. And that those who have been trained in this system make a really sincere effort to be fair, accurate, and make arguments based on facts that can be documented. If errors are shown, they are fixed.

The idea that not everyone is a propagandist without a conscience is beyond the grasp of all too many people nowadays.

Once it decided to attack the publications, CAIR had to find something wrong with them. It claimed the books promote anti-Islamic sentiment among U.S. school children and encourage them to believe Muslims are terrorists who seek to undermine U.S. society.

And how proud I am to announce that they couldn’t find anything that was really defamatory or inaccurate. That’s a really good achievement for the authors and editors!

Of course, they didn’t give up. So they came up with a tiny number of points from 640 pages of text. And guess what? They are all based on demonstrable lies. CAIR couldn’t come up with a single factual error or derogatory phrase.

In other words, they had to distort even these few cases. Here they are:

1. In my book, “History of Islam,” CAIR quoted a passage as follows:

"Today, the great majority of Muslims accept the idea that jihad means a struggle against non-Muslims to increase the area under the rule of Islam."

Note that it doesn’t say that they are favorable to such a step--though polls indicate a lot of them are--or are trying to implement it but that they understand this is what it means. Of course, the “struggle for self-perfection” idea is also there but does not negate the point made above.

Still, CAIR was only able even to claim this was somehow objectionable by omitting the following sentences:

"But they had for many years treated it as an archaic concept, something not suitable for the modern world. In contrast, Islamists seek to use jihad to mobilize revolutionary forces for violent struggle."

The idea that Islamists are trying to use a violent jihad to overthrow governments and launch attacks is hardly controversial, is it?

2. On a page in one of the books, a picture of two Muslim girls is on the same page as a subhead that refers to security threats. CAIR claims that the book is thus asserting that little girls are security threats.

Anyone who looks at the page will see that the photo is part of the previous section and the text makes it clear that these points are in no way being connected. Only someone consciously distorting the material could possibly make such a ludicrous claim.

3. One book contains the passage: "For the first time, Muslims began immigrating to the U.S. in order to transform American society, sometimes through the use of terrorism."

By the way, this is the only “critical” section in five pages about the history of Muslim immigration to the United States.

But what is really fascinating here is that they altered the quotation. In other words, I can show that they lied, which should be enough—and would have been during past periods—to discredit whatever they said immediately. Here is the actual passage in question:

"For the first time [in the 1980s], some Muslims began immigrating to the United States in order to transform American society, sometimes through the use of terrorism. At the same time, some Muslims in the United States also began to support Islamist ideology and the transformation of American society into a Muslim nation."

Note how they removed the timeframe, cut out the word “some” (so as to give the impression that all Muslims were being so accused), and eliminated the connection of the issue to Islamist ideology. The statement actually made in the book is true and easily proven. Again, this had to be a conscious decision to distort the text, knowing that if people saw the actual text they would see the accusations being made are false.

4. Among the hundreds of people cited in the bibliography is one article by Daniel Pipes, whom CAIR doesn’t like because of his effectiveness in critiquing them and their Islamist movement. This is, of course, an attempt to “blacklist” specific scholars who CAIR doesn’t like. I refuse, and so should everyone, to omit citing a scholar's good article because that individual has been put on a boycott list by any group. But aside from the quality of the work cited—which should be the only criterion used—the idea that finding one person you can slander among hundreds “proves” horrible bias defies every logical principle. Rather, it reveals the dishonest behavior of the accuser.

5. In one of the books, on Muslims in Europe, the chronology starts in 1988 and has a lot of references to terrorism. One CAIR official stated that this was discriminatory because "Muslims have been in Europe for thousands of years." Since Islam has only been around for about 1400 years, this is a good example of CAIR’s accuracy.

But, guess what? The book is about contemporary issues and focusing on terrorism and radical activities. A different book in the series deals with the Muslims in Europe and elsewhere around the world in a way with which even CAIR could find no fault.

What then are the implications of CAIR’s approach?

First, that no reference can be made to radical Islamists and their activities—i.e., CAIR itself and its friends—and anything of the srot will be portrayed falsely as derogatory toward all Muslims. In other words, under the guise of anti-defamation they want to camouflage their own activities. It is amusing to note that this includes points and claims made by the Islamists themselves thousands of times in their own literature.

Second, it is all right to lie to create phony “hate crimes” by deliberate misrepresentation.

Third, the media can usually be relied on to not spot these distortions and to not use them to reduce CAIR’s credibility at zero.

Fourth, for every one person who defies what CAIR permits, ten or dozens will be intimidated into silence or into actually writing CAIR-approved propaganda.

But suppose books are actually authored which are good in scholarly terms and accurate in factual terms, refusing to omit material which CAIR doesn’t like? Suppose a book series comes out which critiques Islamism but isn’t hateful toward Islam?

Well, then they have to make up stuff. But since CAIR cannot find anything not falsified, its campaign in fact amounts to an endorsement of the books' fairness and accuracy! Thanks for the compliment

What does this remind me of? Secret police forces in dictatorships, which have to manufacture conspiracies and heresies in order to have something to do and to terrify the population into subservience. “Hate crimes” are organized against dissidents to smear their name and destroy their careers.

Are people beginning to see through this kind of behavior?

To read about and order the book series go here.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). His new edited books include Lebanon: Liberation, Conflict and Crisis; Guide to Islamist Movements; Conflict and Insurgency in the Middle East; and The Muslim Brotherhood. To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books. To see or subscribe to his blog, Rubin Reports.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Islam and Islamism: Are Extremists Hijackers, “Proper Muslims,” or Contenders in a Civil War?

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By Barry Rubin

One of the most controversial issues today is the relationship of the political doctrine of Islamism (including revolutionary activity and terrorism) and the religion of Islam.

Given the desire of too many people to distort this discussion with slogans, insults, and name-calling, it is a very dangerous one. Yet the importance of the issue requires it be analyzed.

Let’s begin by defining three positions. The dominant, establishment view in the West is that Islam is a religion of peace and has nothing to do with violence, hatred of non-Muslims, mistreatment of women, terrorism, or ambition for political power. Anything bad is said to be a distortion of Islam’s “real” message. As a result, the image offered is one of extremists—who are in effect heretics—trying to “hijack” Islam.

A second view is that Islam is an innately extremist hate-filled religion and that this cannot change because such materials are built into the sacred texts.

This is what those in the first group like to call “Islamophobic.” That is, by the way, a badly chosen term since it implies these people are afraid of Islam, a fear that may be attributed to xenophobic bigotry but in reality comes largely from the violent activities and extremist statements made by (some, many) Muslims. The choice of the phrase reveals its weakness and even dishonesty. A more accurate word for systematic haters would be “anti-Islamic.”

One weakness of this second position is to freeze Islam into a single stance whereas it is easy to show that historically there have been many different ways Islam has functioned regarding the state and society. In contrast, the "religion of peace" advocates believe they if they can merely find one era when Islam has been tolerant this not only proves the "Islamophobes" wrong but somehow--illogically--shows that Islam is always tolerant and moderate.

But there is a third standpoint, which the “religion of peace” advocates often like to slander by putting it into the “Islamophobic” category for daring to say anything critical at all. This is to say that Islam, like all religions, must be interpreted by its adherents and they never all agree on how to do so. Even if the texts remain the same--as in Christianity and Judaism--the way they are implemented does not have to always stay frozen.

All the things radical Islamists claim can be found in the basic Islamic texts. They are not mere lying, isolated, heretics but a legitimate competing group within Islam.

This third group, let's call it the realistic school, argues that it is an urgent task to deal honestly with this reality, reject pretending that everything is just fine, and to urge or demand that non-radical Muslims wage the war of interpretation against the radicals.
Yet the Islamists are also in political conflict with what had been, up until recently, mainstream Islam in terms of practice, which I call conservative, traditional Islam. In every country, most of the ulama overwhelmingly support the existing regime--and are well-paid for doing so, too. But an Islamist triumph is against their own self-interest as well since the revolutionaries view them as traitors.

Similarly, most rank-and-file Muslims also do not support the Islamists who want to transform their own country, though a large number will cheer them on to kill non-Muslims. That is why, of course, it is so tempting for Islamists to focus their attacks on Israelis and Westerners. Otherwise, their victims will be conservative traditionalist Muslims who represent the majority populations in their own countries.

That is why, according to this third standpoint, the best way of describing the relationship is that of rivals fighting over control of the steering wheel rather than a hijacking by a group of Islamists who are mere criminal interlopers. Daniel Pipes has described this situation in his own words as radical Islam being the problem and moderate Islam being the solution.

While respecting his formulation I’d use my own phrasing: There are three contestants: The powerful Islamist political movement; the strong but perhaps weakening conservative traditional Islam (which is being influenced by Islamism, too); and the very weak reformist Islam. Islamism is the worst of those alternatives. I would say: radical Islam in the form of Islamism is the problem; moderate Islam is the best solution; but even conservative traditional Islam is preferable to Islamism and is far more likely to win—like it or not—than some grand project for reforming Islam that would take decades if not centuries.

This is by no means to idealize mainstream conservative traditional Islam which is in many respects retrograde and sabotages economic and social progress. Yet it would have been far more permissive—in reality if not in theory—of change. Obviously, of course, conservative traditional Islam in Saudi Arabia is far more extreme than in a country like Egypt or Tunisia. And the spread of the Saudi version, undermining more tolerant Islam as far afield as Indonesia, is also part of the modern Islamist problem. As one Saudi put it, what big Usama says is in large part what little Usama learned in (Saudi) school.

Two more brief remarks about why the problem is far more one of political Islamism than it is of the religion of Islam as such.

Let us assume that the immigration of Muslims to the West was happening 50 or even years ago. This was in a period before Islamism took hold. And so whatever problems did take place--many of them cultural, too--there would be no huge problem as there is today with a powerful Islamist interpretation often dominating the field and controlling organizations and often mosques and schools There would be no terrorism issue. While many Muslims would want to keep apart and reject Western ways, they would do so quietly and peacefully. While women who became Westernized and anyone wanting to convert to another religion would face some harassment, they would not face a high likelihood of being murdered. The younger generations would become more, not less, comfortable and accommodating with Western society.

(Of course, back then, Western societies would also have unapologetically advocated assimilation or acculturation which would also have reduced the problem.)

Finally, my view is that all the material for extremism is present in Islam but it requires a specific interpretation to focus on all the most radical parts of the texts rather than ignore them. There is no parallel in Christian religious texts with what is in Islamic texts extolling violence and preaching intolerance and political conquest. But there is a parallel in Christian behavior over many centuries and through the Medieval period. Christianity. The problem for the apologists for Islam, however, is that there are dominant interpretations--especially in Islamism--which represent a form of Islam in 2010 which was last seen in Christianity (with a few exceptions) 500 years ago. Thus the religions may be parallel on a theoretical level but not in actual contemporary practice.

For example, the great debate from the mid-1500s onward in Europe, though it took about 300 years to resolve, was between those who said that the king's power derived from the people and was limited, and htose who said that the king's power came from God and was unlimited. In the Arabic-speaking world (along with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran) the debate that began in the late twentieth century was between those who said that the dictator's power came from God (or from the Nation with a capital "N" which amounts to the same thing) and was unlimited against those who said that Islamic law should have supreme power to which all people must yield.

That's a heck of a lot of historical gap. The debate over real democracy hasn't even begun yet.
To say that all religions contain extremist ideas and thus are the same might be true in response to the “Islamophobic” argument that nothing ever changes. But it has nothing useful to say for an era in which millions of Muslims hold views equivalent to those of Christians at the time of the Crusades while Christians have become overwhelmingly of the “turn the other cheek” variety when it comes to relations between their own religion and others or society in general.

Are Muslims the main victims of radical Islamism or, if you wish, radical Islam? The answer is absolutely yes. Yet if that’s true then what we are dealing with here is a civil war within Islam in which Muslims have chosen different sides, neither a hijacking nor the “inevitable interpretation” of Islam. After all, if the Islamists were impersonators they would have no support, and if they were unquestionably the correct form of Muslim they would have all Muslims’ support.

Pretending that those who rule Iran and the Gaza Strip, who are the most powerful force in Lebanon, who are the main opposition movement in every Arabic-speaking country, and who are engaged in revolutionary movements from Morocco to Indonesia aren’t “real” Muslims is not going to help anybody.

The key here is political, not theological. Not all Muslims are good; not all Muslims are bad; not all Muslims are “moderate”; not all Muslims are “radical.” The same tools of historical study and political analysis should be used on the issue of Islam and Islamism as on all other questions.

The bottom line is that even the most controversial issues should be approached in the most balanced, rational, and calm way possible.

For more on this issue, see here.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books. To see or subscribe to his blog, Rubin Reports.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Muslim Brotherhood’s New Leader Shows There’s No Hope of Moderation

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By Barry Rubin

Muhammad Badie, a 66-year-old professor of veterinary medicine is the new head of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Indeed, barring any serious ill health he will probably run the Islamist group for the next ten to twenty years, foreclosing the possibility of any real moderation from that group.

Yet since Badie doesn’t want to make any changes in the Brotherhood, he is likely not to make it any more revolutionary either. Clearly, the Brotherhood fears confrontation with the Egyptian government because it knows who would lose. Already, about 1000 members have gone to jail each year and technically the Brotherhood is an illegal organization. If President Husni Mubarak is going to make his own son Egypt’s next president, the Brotherhood will have to shut up and take it.

But if Gamal Mubarak, or whoever else is selected, stumbles and the regime runs into an internal crisis, the Brotherhood could take advantage of it to become more militant. The scope of its popularity was indicated when Brotherhood candidates, though they couldn't run under its banner, took 20 percent of the parliament seats in 2005 despite the election being rigged against them. They also took over the previously moderate pro-democracy movement and coopted a number of liberals who fear the Brotherhood less than they hate the regime.

For the present though, like it or not, the Brotherhood is kept from being more radical by the pressure of the Egyptian regime, but its more public relations’ oriented figures want to convince the West that it is precisely this pressure that has held it back from being more reformist. For example, Abd al-Galil al-Shernouby, 35-year-old editor of the Brotherhoods Internet site told a credulous Western reporter, “We are always under a security guillotine which prevents internal dialogue and dries up our street base through which we operate."

In other words, the regime’s pressure makes it harder for the Brotherhood to build a base. Note that the three most successful revolutionary Islamist movements—Hamas, Hizballah, and the Iraqi insurgents—have been radicalized and heavily terrorist in a situation where the government was too weak to keep them in check.

A key characteristic of the contemporary Brotherhood is that while moderate statements are often made in English to reporters and on the group’s English-language website (which has even published and politely disputed my articles), this has nothing to do with the fire-breathing extremism of its Arabic-language proclamations and positions. Observers often mention that the Brotherhood does not carry out violence within Egypt. That’s true enough but it advocates such behavior abroad, including against American forces in Iraq as well as, of course, against Israel.

Recently, a U.S. official responded to my remarks about the Brotherhood being an extremist and anti-American group with which the United States should not engage by saying that this is the kind of thing that’s been said for a long time. Correct. There have been warnings that the Brotherhood, in Egypt and elsewhere (especially in Europe and North America where it has many front groups and often seizes control of mosques and Muslim groups) is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Those should continue because they are quite accurate.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books. To see or subscribe to his blog, Rubin Reports.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Radical Islamism: An Introductory Primer

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The following is intended as a work in progress to provide a very brief discussion of issues involving radical Islamism. Naturally, it is too short to make all points, deal with all aspects, and cover all details. I plan to expand it in future to include possible solutions.

By Barry Rubin

A young American named Ramy Zamzam, arrested in Pakistan for trying to fight alongside the Taliban, responded in an interview with the Associated Press: "We are not terrorists. We are jihadists, and jihad is not terrorism."

What he says is well worth bearing in mind in order to understand the great conflict of our era. First and foremost, Jihadism or radical Islamism is far more than mere terrorism. It is a revolutionary movement in every sense of the word. It seeks to overthrow existing regimes and replace them with governments that will transform society into a nightmarishly repressive system.

And so one might put it this way: Revolutionary Islamism is the main strategic problem in the world today. Terrorism is the main tactical problem.

What is Islamism?

Radical Islamism is the doctrine that each Muslim majority country—politics, economy, society—should be ruled by a totalitarian dictatorship guided by the given movement’s definition of proper Islam. What Marxism was to Communism, and fascism to Nazism, Jihadism is to Islamism.

In some cases, Islamists have a wider ambition to transform the entire world, starting with Europe. While this may seem ridiculous to most Westerners, it does not seem so to the Islamists who hold that view.

Only a minority of Muslims is Islamist but that sector has grown sharply over the last twenty years and seems to be on the increase still. Muslims are also among the greatest opponents of political Islamism, and often its victims. Among those rejecting it are conservative traditionalist Muslims and Arab (or other types of) nationalists, along with a very small group which can be called liberal reformist.

Three places have been under radical Islamist rule so far: Iran and the Gaza Strip, as well as, temporarily, Afghanistan. An Islamist group using democratic tactics has gained control of the government in Turkey, where it is pursuing a step-by-step attempt to transform that country which may or may not succeed. Radical Islamist movements have been active in well over 60 countries ranging from Australia and Indonesia in the east to Morocco in the west, and even in Europe and North America.

The fact that radical Islamism relates to a religion, Islam, is very important (see below) but should not blind observers to the fact that this is basically a political movement and not—at least in the modern Western sense—a theological one.

Of course, Islamism is rooted in Islam but a strong opposition to Islamism—a standpoint shared by many Muslims who may motivated by a traditional view of Islam, ethnic or nation-state nationalism, or a different radical ideology (Arab nationalism most likely)—is in no way an expression of bigotry against a religion.
Similarly, the idea that opposition to Islamism is in some way “racist” is absurd since no “race” is involved. Just as opponents of Communism (capitalist, imperialist) and fascism (Jews, Bolsheviks) could be discredited by calling them names, the same is done with those who oppose Islamism.

Very roughly, Islamism is parallel to Communism and fascism as revolutionary mass movements. Analogies should not be carried too far but are useful in understanding certain basic points.

There are a wide variety of Islamist groups. A small but energetic international grouping of local organizations called al-Qaida; Muslim Brotherhood branches, Hamas, and Hizballah are the best known. In virtually every Muslim majority country and throughout Western Europe there are such organizations working very hard to gain state power.

What is the relationship of Islamism to Islam?

Islamism grows out of Islam and its advocates easily find widely accepted and very basic Islamic principles that justify their world view and behavior. But Islamism is an interpretation of Islam and not the only one possible. Indeed, for centuries there have been different interpretations.

To argue that Islamism is the inevitable or “correct” interpretation of Islam is as silly as it is to argue that it is some external, heretical ideology which has “hijacked” Islam. A rough parallel can be made with the relationship between Communism and either liberal or democratic socialism, and of fascism compared to conservatism or nationalism.

What Islam “means” can only be interpreted in practice by Muslims in a process of debate and struggle. We will see what happens in the decades to come. For outsiders to claim that Islam is “really” a religion of peace or “really” inevitably aggressive is meaningless. And, yes, no matter how powerful a religious text seems to be worded, followers of that religion can always find ways to ignore or reinterpret those texts.

Just as the Islamists can base their case on original Islamic texts, their Muslim opponents can argue from centuries of practice as well as their own interpretations. The reason that the Islamists (who were earlier called “fundamentalists” for precisely this reason) have to go back to the seventh century texts—though of course there are later ones they use that support their case—is that the intervening years did not follow their precepts. Indeed, that is precisely their complaint.

What eventually emerged is what I call conservative traditionalist Islam which subordinated itself to the rulers. It was no longer a revolutionary doctrine. A key point in this approach was the argument that as long as the ruler was a believing Muslim he should be obeyed. In addition, it was a powerfully held stance that no Muslim could judge and condemn as heretical the beliefs or behavior of other Muslims unless they were really obvious and extreme ones. Islamism had to combat these and other tenets of conservative traditionalist Islam.

To summarize in one sentence: we should be absolutely honest in showing how the most sacred texts of Islam appear to validate revolutionary Islamists but we should understand that a struggle is going on among Muslims in which different interpretations are contending. While Islamism is not the only possible interpretation of Islam, its approach is certainly shaped and justified by basic Islamic texts. Unless Muslims and especially qualified clerics reinterpret these tenets, Islamism will continue to have a strong advantage in competing with conservative traditional Islam while liberal reformism will remain a tiny, powerless viewpoint.

It is not that Islam has been hijacked, rather different forces are fighting over control of the steering wheel.

State sponsorship and nation-state ambitions

It is also, even when not so visibly state-sponsored, often an instrument of specific states, most notably Iran and Syria. Trying to spread Islamist revolution has been a major goal since the takeover of Iran itself and fits closely with Iranian great power ambitions. Not all leaders have pursued this with equal vigor but it is a high priority of the current rulers. A wide variety of organizations from barely disguised front groups to powerful Islamist organizations in Iraq, Lebanon, and among the Palestinians are used for this purpose. Most recently this pattern has been extended to Yemen. Some are pure assets, others client groups with a measure of independence.

While itself not an Islamist regime, Syria has understandably calculated that the Islamist side serves its interests very well. Thus, idea that Syria can easily be pulled away from its alliance with Iran and backing for Islamist groups like Hamas and Hizballah is a fantasy.

It is quite true that al-Qaida has shown that Islamist groups don’t have to be state-backed but the fact is that many of them still are able to operate because there is a regime behind them.

Tactics and strategies

Like Communist movements in the past, Islamist movements use a wide variety of strategies and tactics. The use of a non-violent tactic—like participation in elections—does not indicate that the group has ceased to be revolutionary. Actually, it is tough pressure by the regime that might force the Islamist leadership to postpone revolutionary activity to the distant future (Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood), repress it altogether (Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood), or get it tied up in electoral knots (Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood).

On the other hand, it is no accident that the most militant Islamist groups have flourished where government is weakest: Hizballah, Hamas, and the Iraqi insurgents.

As for terrorism, that is a strategy and tactic which appeals to these movements for very specific reasons. These include the following points. While the Islamists claim they are only conducting a “defensive jihad”—since there is no caliph, offensive jihad isn’t supposed to happen—they are actually conducting offensive revolution.

The ideas that America is being attacked because Jihadists dislike its freedom or that it is being targeted because of its policies are both partly true. But precisely the same point could be made about Communism, Nazism, and Japanese imperialism. The problem of American culture and freedom, however, does not relate to what goes on in the United States but the fear that this model will spread inevitably to their own societies.

The complaint about U.S. policy is related to the fact that America is seen as a protector of the regimes the Islamists want to overthrow. The motive here is not that these regimes are tyrannical but that they are not Islamist. Lebanon and Turkey, the most democratic states in the Muslim-majority Middle East, have especially strong Islamist movements.

Another reason for targeting the United States or others in the West is that killing infidels is popular among the Islamists’ constituency as a sign of power to defeat the stronger West. The alternative is to focus terrorist attacks on the local governments. But killing fellow Muslims is less popular and the governments strike back with ferocious repression, while they are more likely to tolerate movements that only attack non-Muslims at home or abroad.

Why is terrorism used?

--It expresses the total and dehumanizing hatred Islamists have toward their enemies.

--It shows their disinterest in any compromise since the use of terrorism will dissuade their enemies from making deals.

--They believe that intimidation works and the history of terrorism shows they are not wrong in doing so.

--Terror, at least against non-Muslims, generally pleases their constituency and thus strengthens their base of support.

--This tactic fits with certain Islamic beliefs and texts while well-known clerics do not condemn terrorism, at least against non-Muslims, strongly, explicitly, and consistently.

It is tempting to say that terrorism is a tactic of last resort when repressive regimes permit no other route. But in most—though not all—cases, terrorism is used against the less tyrannical societies for a simple reason: the really repressive ones quickly kill the terrorists.

Conclusion

Neither more democracy nor more prosperity provides simple solutions to this challenge by Islamism. Many Islamist leaders and cadre come from well-off families. They are driven by ideological, cultural, and religious factors just as left-wing students in the West seek utopian transformations of society. Equally, they are not driven by antagonism to tyranny since their goal is to establish a new, worse tyranny. Both the Nazis and Communists came to power by overthrowing democratic regimes, in part through elections. With Islamism’s strength, the problem is not the lack of democracy by the rulers but the lack of a strong democratic movement to compete with it.

The Islamist movements will only be defeated by the destruction of violent groups as well as a widespread perception among Muslims that they either cannot take power or are a disaster as rulers.

Better government and higher living standards in their own countries would help to some extent in some countries. Aside from not overestimating this factor, it should be added that the West has no way to make these things happen, by overthrowing and replacing regimes (as Iraq and Afghanistan show), by changing its own policies, or by pressuring the incumbent regimes to change.

Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books. To see or subscribe to his blog, Rubin Reports.