Thursday, January 19, 2012
Are Many Americans Changing Their Political Views? Yes. Enough? We'll See in November
By Barry Rubin
A long-time reader and correspondent asked me some questions about my recent article on liberalism and the Democratic party. I think you might be interested in my responses.
I'm not an expert on polls or political behavior so what I'm writing here is a combination of conversations, experiences, reading, and some study of polls. Many callers to talk radio shows describe their personal evolution in detail.
I believe that a considerable portion of traditional liberal Democrats, and especially Jews, have done a lot of serious rethinking in the last three years. Though the defections might be smaller than one might want or expect--polls show that Jewish Democrats have stopped supporting Obama in higher proportions than other Democrats--I believe they are quite significant. Whether or not they will sway the presidential election is another matter but then, of course, Independents have changed their views to an even higher extent.
My conclusion is that Obama has lost about 25 percent of his Jewish base and around 20 percent of his overall Democratic support. We can see his general decline in the polls. Obviously they are affected by various issues but first and foremost, of course, are the economy and foreign policy.
Posted by Rubin Center at 2:56 PM