Thursday, August 4, 2011

Polls Prove Strength, Not Weakness, of Islamists in Egypt

Big surprise: The facts are the precise opposite of what the mass media is telling you


--They are telling you that "only" 17 percent of Egyptians support the "unpopular" Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, the number 34 percent is more realistic, and that's the low estimate for how many seats they will get in parliament (I'm predicting for the moment 40 percent).

--The mass media is telling you that the Brotherhood is suffering serious splits that are weakening it. Yet the biggest alternative Islamist party (which is more moderate) is shown to be receiving less than 2 percent.

--While "liberal" parties do well in the poll, it takes all three of them to equal the Brotherhood's support. If they split the vote in district races, the Brotherhood candidates will win.

By Barry Rubin

Several recent polls purport to show the Muslim Brotherhood is unpopular in Egypt. An article in the Atlantic is particularly laughable, claiming the Brotherhood is less popular than Richard Nixon when he resigned!

The most important single point is this: the Brotherhood isn't at an "unpopular" 17 percent (among a presumed 100 percent) but a 17 percent base of support among the 50 percent of those who chose a party that might win seats (34 out of 100 percent). In other words, one in every three Egyptians who have decided and will have a real role in the outcome are ready to cast their ballots for the Brotherhood. It is the largest single party. And it has advantages that make it likely to get more than 33 percent of the seats.

Read it all.

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