Sunday, April 19, 2009

Israel and Iran's Nuclear Program: The Simple Truth

I think there is a massive misunderstanding of the situation regarding Israel and Iran's nuclear program.

Israel does NOT want to attack Iran.

It prefers to avoid that situation.Israel prefers that sanctions and other diplomatic efforts stop or slow down Iran's nuclear project.

If and when the day comes when it appears that Iran is going to get nuclear weapons very soon--probably 2-3 years in the future, Israel will make a decision as to what to do.

Until that day comes there is no such decision.

A decision will be made on the basis of the following factors:

Does Iran getting nuclear weapons seem likely to lead to their use against Israel?

Is it possible for Israel to succeed in such an attack to set back the program by a number of years? Is such an operation logistically possible?

That is what is actually going on here. The constant talk of an imminent attack or an Israeli preference for an attack is just inaccurate.

1 comment:

  1. It will happen. But not until Israel's leadership is certain all other options have been exhausted. The only thing that one can have a high degree of confidence in is that Iran's regime cannot be expected to behave rationally vis a vis the Jewish State. The MAD doctrine that regulated relations between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War is inapplicable to the situation between Israel and Iran. And given Iran's threats against Israel, Israeli policymakers have to assume the worst case scenario could well happen if Iran obtained nuclear weapons and that would color any Israeli decision as to whether to pre-empt Iran's nuclear program down the road.


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