By Barry Rubin
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has refused to condemn an attack on Israel from Egypt by an al-Qaida affiliate group that killed eight Israelis. The PA is also going to the UN to get support for a unilateral declaration of independence that violates every agreement it reached with Israel since 1993. The PA leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has said that even if Palestinians get an independent state they will continue to demand that millions of Palestinian Arabs must be allowed to go live in Israel so they can turn that into a Muslim Arab state.
Oh, and even when the PA declares that it is a Muslim Arab state (as it says in the PA Constitution) that it will refuse to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. And on September 20, the PA is organizing massive anti-Israel demonstrations that will probably lead to violence. Did I mention that the PA is currently in partnership with Hamas—even though that isn’t working out so well—which regularly attacks Israel with rockets and mortars, as well as declaring that it’s going to kill all the Jews?
But, wait! The PA needs money! So what does it do?
[Speaking of needing money, the GLORIA Center welcomes your tax-deductible donations by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.]
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/31/you-can%e2%80%99t-spell-%e2%80%9cchutzpah%e2%80%9d-without-%e2%80%9cpa%e2%80%9d-palestinian-authority/
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Syria: Is Iran Abandoning the Syrian Dictatorship's Ship?
By Barry Rubin
Here’s an interesting mystery of the day: Why are Iranian leaders starting to criticize their close ally, Syria, and imply that the regime there needs to make reforms or even leave office altogether?
There are three theories:
Read it all!
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/31/syria-is-iran-abandoning-the-syrian-dictatorships-ship/
Here’s an interesting mystery of the day: Why are Iranian leaders starting to criticize their close ally, Syria, and imply that the regime there needs to make reforms or even leave office altogether?
There are three theories:
Read it all!
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/31/syria-is-iran-abandoning-the-syrian-dictatorships-ship/
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Who's "Right-Wing?"
By Barry Rubin
An AFP dispatch about the firing of Larry Derfner has been published widely throughout the world. It mentions correctly that I defended Derfner's right to free speech and said he should not have been fired.
There are two points in the article, however, I would like to challenge. First, is the description of me as "right-wing" and found it surprising that I defended Derfner.
I reject that entirely. There is more of a choice in politics today--I hope--than being either "left-wing" or "right-wing." As I have repeatedly made clear, I am more accurately described as a traditional liberal in American terminology and as a moderate social democrat in European or Israeli terminology. Since I was a parliamentary candidate in the last Israeli election of a social democratic party that might be some clue as to my political views.
By redefining everyone as extreme, the common ground of democracy is being destroyed. I judge each issue on its merits rather than on a preconceived ideological framework. Moreover, the defense of democracy, civil liberties, free speech, and judging someone's work on the basis of merit are important ideas to fight for. Political life should not be reduced to a battle between two extremes that ignore fair play in the search for victory.
Have we reached the point that it is shocking for someone to echo the famous statement that I might not agree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it (in this case, without being fired)? Is it surprising that someone actually agrees with the idea that an open democratic debate is the best solution for a society and opposes all of the various forms of "hate speech" thought crimes?
Because, you see, the founders of the United States were completely correct in understanding that once someone is able to set the boundaries of free speech--with the exception of speech intended directly to lead to criminal action--they can define it any way they want? Even laws defining "Holocaust denial" as a crime are pernicious and, as we have seen, were the opening wedge for far greater denials of free speech.
As for Israel today, a "right-winger" might be someone glad to hold onto control over territory. But most of the center and moderate left, though preferring a two-state solution, knows very well from experience that holding control over the territories in the framework of the 1993 and later agreements between Israel and the Palestinians is a necessity. That isn't "right-wing" that is sanity.
Finally, the AFP dispatch went out of its way to disagree with my point that in practice Palestinian-populated territory is not under Israeli occupation except for east Jerusalem and 20 percent of Hebron--both by agreement with the Palestinian Authority, by the way. The AFP says that international law interpretations say that everything--including the Gaza Strip--is "under occupation."
What this means in the context of the Derfner discussion is that a Palestinian can dwell completely within a Palestinian-ruled territory and be governed in every aspect of life by Palestinian authorities, and then kill Israeli civilians on the basis that he is suffering from a horrible Israeli occupation. This is absurd but then that's par for the course regarding Western news coverage of these issues.
Of course, the AFP had no space for my critique of Derfner's argument: that giving independence would not end the "right to kill Israelis" claim. But then they don't want their readers to know that the problem keeping this conflict going is not the lack of a Palestinian state but the existence of Israel.
An AFP dispatch about the firing of Larry Derfner has been published widely throughout the world. It mentions correctly that I defended Derfner's right to free speech and said he should not have been fired.
There are two points in the article, however, I would like to challenge. First, is the description of me as "right-wing" and found it surprising that I defended Derfner.
I reject that entirely. There is more of a choice in politics today--I hope--than being either "left-wing" or "right-wing." As I have repeatedly made clear, I am more accurately described as a traditional liberal in American terminology and as a moderate social democrat in European or Israeli terminology. Since I was a parliamentary candidate in the last Israeli election of a social democratic party that might be some clue as to my political views.
By redefining everyone as extreme, the common ground of democracy is being destroyed. I judge each issue on its merits rather than on a preconceived ideological framework. Moreover, the defense of democracy, civil liberties, free speech, and judging someone's work on the basis of merit are important ideas to fight for. Political life should not be reduced to a battle between two extremes that ignore fair play in the search for victory.
Have we reached the point that it is shocking for someone to echo the famous statement that I might not agree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it (in this case, without being fired)? Is it surprising that someone actually agrees with the idea that an open democratic debate is the best solution for a society and opposes all of the various forms of "hate speech" thought crimes?
Because, you see, the founders of the United States were completely correct in understanding that once someone is able to set the boundaries of free speech--with the exception of speech intended directly to lead to criminal action--they can define it any way they want? Even laws defining "Holocaust denial" as a crime are pernicious and, as we have seen, were the opening wedge for far greater denials of free speech.
As for Israel today, a "right-winger" might be someone glad to hold onto control over territory. But most of the center and moderate left, though preferring a two-state solution, knows very well from experience that holding control over the territories in the framework of the 1993 and later agreements between Israel and the Palestinians is a necessity. That isn't "right-wing" that is sanity.
Finally, the AFP dispatch went out of its way to disagree with my point that in practice Palestinian-populated territory is not under Israeli occupation except for east Jerusalem and 20 percent of Hebron--both by agreement with the Palestinian Authority, by the way. The AFP says that international law interpretations say that everything--including the Gaza Strip--is "under occupation."
What this means in the context of the Derfner discussion is that a Palestinian can dwell completely within a Palestinian-ruled territory and be governed in every aspect of life by Palestinian authorities, and then kill Israeli civilians on the basis that he is suffering from a horrible Israeli occupation. This is absurd but then that's par for the course regarding Western news coverage of these issues.
Of course, the AFP had no space for my critique of Derfner's argument: that giving independence would not end the "right to kill Israelis" claim. But then they don't want their readers to know that the problem keeping this conflict going is not the lack of a Palestinian state but the existence of Israel.
What the West Doesn’t Understand About the “`Arab Spring’ Surprise”
Police Inspector Praline (investigating health claims against a candy company): ”What's this one, 'Spring Surprise’?"
Milton (owner of Whizzo Chocolate Company): “Ah--now, that's our specialty! It’s covered with darkest creamy chocolate. When you pop it in your mouth steel bolts spring out and plunge straight through both cheeks.”
--Monty Python’s Flying Circus sketch
By Barry Rubin
In effect, the Middle East is serving up the “Arab Spring Surprise.” Western observers see the dark, creamy chocolate covering. But it’s the steel bolts through the cheeks they’re going to get.
Consider the statement of an Egyptian anchorman (Sayyed Ali) on a television station (al-Mehwar). He isn’t an important person nor is his channel a big one. But it’s a normative piece of contemporary Arab political rhetoric. Thank MEMRI for videoing and translating and give them a donation. He begins:
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/30/what-the-west-doesn%e2%80%99t-understand-about-the-%e2%80%9carab-spring-surprise/
New Issue: MIDDLE EAST REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (MERIA) JOURNAL
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (MERIA) JOURNAL
Volume 15, No. 2 - June 2011, Total Circulation: 30,000
ERGENEKON, SLEDGEHAMMER, AND THE POLITICS OF TURKISH JUSTICE: CONSPIRACIES AND COINCIDENCES
By Gareth Jenkins
Since it was launched in June 2007, the Ergenekon investigation has become the largest and most controversial case in recent Turkish history, resulting in over 300 people being charged with a membership of what is described as a clandestine terrorist organization seeking to destabilize the country’s Islamist government. In the parallel Sledgehammer investigation, 195 members [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/ergenekon-sledgehammer-and-the-politics-of-turkish-justice-conspiracies-and-coincidences/
IRAQ IN CRISIS
By Aymenn Jawad
In the spring of 2011, Iraq witnessed major protests across the country. This article will address the causes of these demonstrations. It will also discuss the obstacles toward forming a stable government and the nature of sectarianism and corruption in the government. Last, it considers the implications for U.S. policy, particularly concerning the December 2011 [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/iraq-in-crisis/
THE EFFECTS OF ELECTORAL DEFEAT AND VICTORY ON INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLES IN THE ISRAELI LIKUD PARTY
By Yaffa Moshkovich
This article describes political changes within the Israeli Likud Party following its defeat in the 1992 elections and its 1996 victory. It explores whether electoral defeat or victory intensified internal power struggles. The findings revealed that defeat destroyed the dominant faction and led to the replacement of the failed leadership. A decrease in power [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/the-effects-of-electoral-defeat-and-victory-on-internal-power-struggles-in-the-israeli-likud-party/
THE MOUNTING PROBLEM OF TEMPLE DENIAL
By David Barnett
Temple Denial is the belief that no Jewish Temple ever existed in Jerusalem. This claim, despite being counter to Islamic tradition, became internalized within Palestinian academic, religious, and political circles following the 1967 Six-Day War. Since the 2000 Camp David Summit, during which Yasir Arafat asserted that the Jewish Temple never existed in Jerusalem, “Temple [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/the-mounting-problem-of-temple-denial/
RADICAL ISLAMISM IN INDONESIA AND ITS MIDDLE EASTERN CONNECTIONS
By Merlyna Lyn
This article offers a three-prong approach to investigating the emergence of contemporary Indonesian radical Islamism in the post-Suharto era (from 1998 onward). First, it places it within the historical context of radical Islamism in Indonesia, its past connection to colonialism, as well as a more contemporary one to Middle Eastern Islamism. Second, it puts [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/radical-islamism-in-indonesia-and-its-middle-eastern-connections/
TRANSNATIONAL ISLAMISM AND ITS IMPACT IN MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA
By Mohamed Nawab Bin Mohamed Osman
This article argues that the Islamist resurgence of the 1980s and anti-American sentiments following the events of September 11 have led to the strengthening of political Islamism in both Malaysia and Indonesia. It also discusses the impact of Islamist movements and governments outside of Southeast Asia (i.e., the Middle East) in shaping the political thinking [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/transnational-islamism-and-its-impact-in-malaysia-and-indonesia/
Volume 15, No. 2 - June 2011, Total Circulation: 30,000
ERGENEKON, SLEDGEHAMMER, AND THE POLITICS OF TURKISH JUSTICE: CONSPIRACIES AND COINCIDENCES
By Gareth Jenkins
Since it was launched in June 2007, the Ergenekon investigation has become the largest and most controversial case in recent Turkish history, resulting in over 300 people being charged with a membership of what is described as a clandestine terrorist organization seeking to destabilize the country’s Islamist government. In the parallel Sledgehammer investigation, 195 members [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/ergenekon-sledgehammer-and-the-politics-of-turkish-justice-conspiracies-and-coincidences/
IRAQ IN CRISIS
By Aymenn Jawad
In the spring of 2011, Iraq witnessed major protests across the country. This article will address the causes of these demonstrations. It will also discuss the obstacles toward forming a stable government and the nature of sectarianism and corruption in the government. Last, it considers the implications for U.S. policy, particularly concerning the December 2011 [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/iraq-in-crisis/
THE EFFECTS OF ELECTORAL DEFEAT AND VICTORY ON INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLES IN THE ISRAELI LIKUD PARTY
By Yaffa Moshkovich
This article describes political changes within the Israeli Likud Party following its defeat in the 1992 elections and its 1996 victory. It explores whether electoral defeat or victory intensified internal power struggles. The findings revealed that defeat destroyed the dominant faction and led to the replacement of the failed leadership. A decrease in power [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/the-effects-of-electoral-defeat-and-victory-on-internal-power-struggles-in-the-israeli-likud-party/
THE MOUNTING PROBLEM OF TEMPLE DENIAL
By David Barnett
Temple Denial is the belief that no Jewish Temple ever existed in Jerusalem. This claim, despite being counter to Islamic tradition, became internalized within Palestinian academic, religious, and political circles following the 1967 Six-Day War. Since the 2000 Camp David Summit, during which Yasir Arafat asserted that the Jewish Temple never existed in Jerusalem, “Temple [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/the-mounting-problem-of-temple-denial/
RADICAL ISLAMISM IN INDONESIA AND ITS MIDDLE EASTERN CONNECTIONS
By Merlyna Lyn
This article offers a three-prong approach to investigating the emergence of contemporary Indonesian radical Islamism in the post-Suharto era (from 1998 onward). First, it places it within the historical context of radical Islamism in Indonesia, its past connection to colonialism, as well as a more contemporary one to Middle Eastern Islamism. Second, it puts [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/radical-islamism-in-indonesia-and-its-middle-eastern-connections/
TRANSNATIONAL ISLAMISM AND ITS IMPACT IN MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA
By Mohamed Nawab Bin Mohamed Osman
This article argues that the Islamist resurgence of the 1980s and anti-American sentiments following the events of September 11 have led to the strengthening of political Islamism in both Malaysia and Indonesia. It also discusses the impact of Islamist movements and governments outside of Southeast Asia (i.e., the Middle East) in shaping the political thinking [...]
http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2011/06/transnational-islamism-and-its-impact-in-malaysia-and-indonesia/
Monday, August 29, 2011
Trying to Manage the Post-Qadhafi Libya While Qadhafi is Still Around
The United States has recognized the Transitional National Council (TNC) of Libya as the provisional government of that country. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns addressed the Libyan Contact Group meeting–where else?–in Turkey, the Obama Administration’s favorite Middle East mediator despite that regime being a pro-Iran Islamist government that is turning Turkey into a police state. Turkey as a role model for the Arab world, anyone?...
Precisely because Burns, a serious professional diplomat, has stated the problems so well, I’m skeptical. For rebel commanders, the TNC is a bunch of corrupt guys with expensive suits, many of whom worked with the dictator, Muammar al-Qadhafi, in an oppressive dictatorship, and lived luxuriously abroad while the rebels were fighting and dying (and looting and burning, too). The rebels are undisciplined; there’s no chain of command; and the tribes in many cases hate each other. Burns describes a utopian situation that I think has very little to do with the reality of Libya.
And now a word from our sponsor: Libya has oil; the GLORIA Center doesn't. So, please, we need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
And now back to our regularly scheduled program....
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/29/trying-to-manage-the-post-qadhafi-libya-while-qadhafi-is-still-around/
Precisely because Burns, a serious professional diplomat, has stated the problems so well, I’m skeptical. For rebel commanders, the TNC is a bunch of corrupt guys with expensive suits, many of whom worked with the dictator, Muammar al-Qadhafi, in an oppressive dictatorship, and lived luxuriously abroad while the rebels were fighting and dying (and looting and burning, too). The rebels are undisciplined; there’s no chain of command; and the tribes in many cases hate each other. Burns describes a utopian situation that I think has very little to do with the reality of Libya.
And now a word from our sponsor: Libya has oil; the GLORIA Center doesn't. So, please, we need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
And now back to our regularly scheduled program....
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/29/trying-to-manage-the-post-qadhafi-libya-while-qadhafi-is-still-around/
Larry Derfner Should be Debated, Not Fired
By Barry Rubin
The Jerusalem Post columnist Larry Derfner was fired today because he wrote on his blog a statement many readers saw as justifying Palestinian terrorism against Israelis. As so often happens when people focus on a single sentence of an article, they're missing the point, or at least the most important point. It also throws away what President Barack Obama calls a teachable moment.
The issue here is not “left” versus “right” but rather what is true and what is not.
In addition, columnists should not be continued in their jobs if their writing is not interesting or is factually inaccurate, not because they write something that people don’t like.
All too often nowadays the response to disagreement is to try to destroy people on the other side of the argument, to delegitimize them with name-calling and to silence them. That's not the way democratic debate is supposed to work. If you think someone is wrong then answer the substance of the statements being made.
I don't think Derfner should have been fired. Rather the point is that people should have answered what he said. Like Gideon Levy of Haaretz he is still arguing the line that terrorism is basically Israel’s fault. They hate us and want to kill us because we haven't made enough concessions and because we are oppressing them. That's the issue, not "justifying" terrorism.
Of course, Derfner's position implies that if Israel ended the “occupation” and accepted a Palestinian state, terrorism, incitement, and hatred would stop. Many people throughout the world think the same thing.
That is a point worth debating. Since 1993, Israel has been trying out that theory and it has proven to be false. Unfortunately, and I wish things were different, we learned that the Palestinian leadership doesn't want compromise and is unable to deliver it.
There are two problems here. First, the Palestinian leaders seek to wipe Israel off the map and are not in favor of a lasting, stable, and peaceful two-state solution. We know this by reading their words in Arabic, watching the institutions they direct, and observing their actions.
Secon, the Palestinian leaders--including those like Prime Minister Salam Fayyad--who do want negotiated compromise solution are too weak to bring it about. They fear their own people who they've been inciting toward extremism for years; the hardline mainstream within Fatah; and, of course, their Hamas rivals.
So, no, giving more territory; accepting a Palestinian state unconditionally; letting terrorist attacks on Israel go unanswered by retaliation; and so on will not solve the problem. I genuinely wish it were otherwise. It would be far better if Israel's left-wing was correct and there was an easy and quick way to achieve full peace through a two-state solution this week.
The Jerusalem Post columnist Larry Derfner was fired today because he wrote on his blog a statement many readers saw as justifying Palestinian terrorism against Israelis. As so often happens when people focus on a single sentence of an article, they're missing the point, or at least the most important point. It also throws away what President Barack Obama calls a teachable moment.
The issue here is not “left” versus “right” but rather what is true and what is not.
In addition, columnists should not be continued in their jobs if their writing is not interesting or is factually inaccurate, not because they write something that people don’t like.
All too often nowadays the response to disagreement is to try to destroy people on the other side of the argument, to delegitimize them with name-calling and to silence them. That's not the way democratic debate is supposed to work. If you think someone is wrong then answer the substance of the statements being made.
I don't think Derfner should have been fired. Rather the point is that people should have answered what he said. Like Gideon Levy of Haaretz he is still arguing the line that terrorism is basically Israel’s fault. They hate us and want to kill us because we haven't made enough concessions and because we are oppressing them. That's the issue, not "justifying" terrorism.
Of course, Derfner's position implies that if Israel ended the “occupation” and accepted a Palestinian state, terrorism, incitement, and hatred would stop. Many people throughout the world think the same thing.
That is a point worth debating. Since 1993, Israel has been trying out that theory and it has proven to be false. Unfortunately, and I wish things were different, we learned that the Palestinian leadership doesn't want compromise and is unable to deliver it.
There are two problems here. First, the Palestinian leaders seek to wipe Israel off the map and are not in favor of a lasting, stable, and peaceful two-state solution. We know this by reading their words in Arabic, watching the institutions they direct, and observing their actions.
Secon, the Palestinian leaders--including those like Prime Minister Salam Fayyad--who do want negotiated compromise solution are too weak to bring it about. They fear their own people who they've been inciting toward extremism for years; the hardline mainstream within Fatah; and, of course, their Hamas rivals.
So, no, giving more territory; accepting a Palestinian state unconditionally; letting terrorist attacks on Israel go unanswered by retaliation; and so on will not solve the problem. I genuinely wish it were otherwise. It would be far better if Israel's left-wing was correct and there was an easy and quick way to achieve full peace through a two-state solution this week.
Unfortunately, this wishful thinking is wrong and we have seen massive evidence to that effect. That's why the vast majority of Israelis--including those who in the past voted for people like Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin, and Ehud Barak to be prime minister (for example, me), also know this is true.
Let's examine the issue. Derfner says that the "denial of independence" to the Palestinians is so bad that it’s helping drive them to try to kill us.
1. But wait! Didn't they used to say that it was the occupation that is helping drive them to try to kill us?
But now there's no "occupation" (except in 20 percent of Hebron and east Jerusalem) and they are still trying to kill us!
And guess what? If they get independence they will still try to kill us because it will be Israel's existence and the status of the "pre-1948" Palestinians that is "so bad that it's helping drive them to try to kill us."
2. There's another way to look at this, too. If denying them independence is, “so bad that it’s helping drive them to try to kill us.”
Thus, if they obtained independence would they be so grateful, so happy, or so busy building up their country that they would stop trying to kill us?
No. We know--even many of the most dovish and leftist of us--that they will continue to try to kill us from a better strategic position that would make it more likely they would succeed. So what good would that step do? And that is precisely why Israelis are not eager to support independence without any preconditions.
Indeed, a few minutes after writing this piece, I noticed that Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has stated that even if the UN recognizes the independence of Palestine, he and his government will still demand that all Palestinians who lived within Israel's borders before 1948 or any descendants of such people can demand to go live in Israel and Israel must let them in. Or there cannot be peace.
source: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=235789
You see, there's no end to this.
Indeed, a few minutes after writing this piece, I noticed that Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has stated that even if the UN recognizes the independence of Palestine, he and his government will still demand that all Palestinians who lived within Israel's borders before 1948 or any descendants of such people can demand to go live in Israel and Israel must let them in. Or there cannot be peace.
source: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=235789
You see, there's no end to this.
What happens when two weeks after independence there are more cross-border attacks? What happens if incitement continues? What happens if Hamas or radical Fatah forces seize power? What happens if the state of Palestine invites in foreign Arab forces or imports missiles or forms an alliance with Egypt or other sttes? I said "if" but I mean "when."
And the lack of an agreed and defined border, as well as the presence of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip (which the Fatah-led leadership of Palestine would support against Israel) would guarantee tension and a likely crisis before long and periodically thereafter.
At that point, if Israel were to retaliate for an attack or act against a build-up of military forces against itself, that would constitute international aggression in the eyes of many, including a majority in the UN General Assembly. Nobody would help Israel deal with this threat, including the current government of the United States,
To leap into such a situation in the hope--without evidence--that they would then "stop trying to kill us" is insane. No Israeli government would do it and that's the correct decision.
3. And who is "them" when we discuss the Palestinians? Because obviously "them" doesn't apply to Hamas (the group that happens to run almost half of the Palestinian territories) or to many other Palestinian groups and leaders that aren’t Islamist. It doesn't even apply to most of Fatah.
In short, Derfner's formulation is nonsense. And to understand why it is nonsense is the essential point to understanding the conflict, the failure of the "Peace Process," and the Middle East.
But that doesn’t mean he should be fired.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
The "Ground Zero" Mosque Will Never be Built--For Totally Non-Political Reasons
By Barry Rubin
Readers of my column know that I have written repeatedly that the "Ground Zero" mosque would never be built for reasons having nothing to do with politics. The main financiers and the imam have gotten into one legal problem after another and Allstate Insurance Company is now launching a major lawsuit </a>for fraud against one of them.
From the start, it seemed to me that the whole project was designed as something of a scam by shady characters to get lots of money from the contributions of the Saudis and others. In other words, the controversial and triumphalist aspects of the mosque were a public relations' scheme designed to win millions of dollars from the Muslim-majority world's millionaires. When the money didn't materialize--the controversy didn't help matters--the whole thing fell apart.
And now a word from our sponsor: The "Ground Zero" mosque hoped for millions of dollars in Saudi and other oil money. We don't have the Saudis or George Soros, but the GLORIA Center is going to give you more accurate news and analysis on the Middle East than anything funded by them. So please give a donation, no matter how small, and it's tax-deductible in the US! Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read the whole article:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/28/the-ground-zero-mosque-will-never-be-built-for-totally-non-political-reasons/
Readers of my column know that I have written repeatedly that the "Ground Zero" mosque would never be built for reasons having nothing to do with politics. The main financiers and the imam have gotten into one legal problem after another and Allstate Insurance Company is now launching a major lawsuit </a>for fraud against one of them.
From the start, it seemed to me that the whole project was designed as something of a scam by shady characters to get lots of money from the contributions of the Saudis and others. In other words, the controversial and triumphalist aspects of the mosque were a public relations' scheme designed to win millions of dollars from the Muslim-majority world's millionaires. When the money didn't materialize--the controversy didn't help matters--the whole thing fell apart.
And now a word from our sponsor: The "Ground Zero" mosque hoped for millions of dollars in Saudi and other oil money. We don't have the Saudis or George Soros, but the GLORIA Center is going to give you more accurate news and analysis on the Middle East than anything funded by them. So please give a donation, no matter how small, and it's tax-deductible in the US! Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read the whole article:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/28/the-ground-zero-mosque-will-never-be-built-for-totally-non-political-reasons/
Saturday, August 27, 2011
A Lesson From Egypt For American Politics
A wise president puts into effect policies that work.
A smart president sees his policies aren’t working and changes them.
An Egyptian president says the Israelis ate my homework
This American president says that the Japanese earthquake ate my economy
--Barry Rubin, The Article You’re Reading Right Now
How is America increasingly being governed and issues discussed as in an Arab dictatorship?
But first a word from our sponsor: Most of those you see on video aren't really Middle East experts, they just play them on television. For real foresight and insight on the region and international affairs, read Rubin Reports, but to do so we need your support so...Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button at: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
We now return you to our regularly scheduled analysis:
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/27/a-lesson-from-egypt-for-american-politics/
A smart president sees his policies aren’t working and changes them.
An Egyptian president says the Israelis ate my homework
This American president says that the Japanese earthquake ate my economy
--Barry Rubin, The Article You’re Reading Right Now
How is America increasingly being governed and issues discussed as in an Arab dictatorship?
But first a word from our sponsor: Most of those you see on video aren't really Middle East experts, they just play them on television. For real foresight and insight on the region and international affairs, read Rubin Reports, but to do so we need your support so...Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button at: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
We now return you to our regularly scheduled analysis:
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/27/a-lesson-from-egypt-for-american-politics/
I'm Interviewed on Middle East Issues
I'm interviewed by Katherine Jean Lopez (KJL) of National Review. The text here updates very slightly the published text.
KJL: Is there any question Qaddafi is going to leave Libya? How could that change things?
RUBIN: The latest trends in the fighting are against him. More than at any other time, the rebel advance threatens his survival. And as we saw recently with the British, the NATO allies are intervening more to help the rebels win, going far beyond protecting civilians.
Again, and this is not in any way to sympathize with Qaddafi, the NATO countries and the United States are doing nothing to protect civilians from the rebels. There is a lot of looting, wanton destruction, and human-rights abuses when they take over. No action or public protest comes from Europe or the Obama administration.
Another interesting development is the clear tribal divisions among the rebels and the emergence of a Berber movement that might seek some autonomy if Qaddafi is defeated.
But that war over who is going to rule Libya is a long way from being over.
KJL: What are you most worried about in Tripoli?
RUBIN: Nobody knows what’s going to happen there. There are many conflicts: regional (eastern versus western Libya); ethnic (Berbers and Arabs); ideological; factional; personal; and recent defectors from Qaddafi’s regime versus rebels. The rebels have looted, burned, and killed civilians, with a special animus toward black Africans, a group identified with Qaddafi’s regime by the rebels. Thus, the prospects for violence and disorder are tremendous. A new regime might maintain stability, reduce repression, and spend some of the oil income for the benefit of its people. But it is unlikely to be either a democratic or a pro-Western regime.
KJL: Is this new U.S. pressure on Assad going to make a difference?
RUBIN: No, The Syrian rulers view themselves as engaged in a life-and-death struggle. If they lose they will be killed or will have to flee. There is a possibility that their families and Alawites in general (who make up much of the elite) will be massacred in communal violence. And the Sunni Muslims in the regime can hope for little mercy. I’m not sympathizing with them, I’m explaining that these people aren’t going to care about sanctions that have little effect on the situation.
Then there’s the opposition. Will they cheer that the West — and especially America — is on their side? Well, no. It is too little, too late.
Of course, this was the right thing to do by the U.S. government. But as I point out in a detailed analysis of the announcement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the administration revealed all of the weaknesses in its own worldview by the way it declared Bashar al-Assad should go.
KJL: How goes the “Arab Spring?” What would you call this summer?
RUBIN: First, let’s remember that only in two countries has there been a change of regime due to a popular revolt — Tunisia and Egypt — and in both cases the army was the key factor in the change. Both countries will be waiting several months more for elections that will give us a sense of their direction. Clearly, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is the largest single party and will get 30 to 40 percent of the seats. A combination of three supposedly centrist reform parties will get about the same amount together. About 10 percent each, it seems, will go to supporters of the old regime and to the far left. Of course, this could change by election day.
If the regime has been overthrown in Libya, that is due to Western military intervention, without which the conflict would be continuing and Qadhafi might well have won. In Afghanistan and Iraq also, of course, the regimes were overthrown by external forces, a coalition led by U.S. troops.
The lesson may be the exact opposite from the one being drawn: popular revolts by themselves are unable to overthrow Middle Eastern governments.
If the regime has been overthrown in Libya, that is due to Western military intervention, without which the conflict would be continuing and Qadhafi might well have won. In Afghanistan and Iraq also, of course, the regimes were overthrown by external forces, a coalition led by U.S. troops.
The lesson may be the exact opposite from the one being drawn: popular revolts by themselves are unable to overthrow Middle Eastern governments.
In Tunisia, the Islamists will be a small party, between 10 and 15 percent.
Elsewhere, the bloodshed goes on in Syria; upheavals have been squashed in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf Arab monarchies; and Yemen is a mess of factions, Islamists, and tribes.
That does not amount to a fundamental transformation of the region by democratic forces If one adds in the role of revolutionary Islamists, events could be said to show the continuing weakness of at least moderate democratic forces.
KJL: How would you rate U.S. leadership on all of this?
RUBIN: Terrible! For a number of reasons: mishandling Egypt; empowering the Muslim Brotherhood; failing to support democratic oppositions in Turkey and Lebanon, and waiting too long to call for the downfall of the Syrian government; failing to consult with moderate Arab allies and totally dissing Saudi Arabia; not giving Israel strong support at a time when its security situation is worsening; ignoring the increasing Islamization and repression in Turkey; actually acting to help the survival of Hamas in the Gaza Strip by forcing reduced sanctions and supplying funds indirectly; and being far too slow and weak to respond to the Palestinian Authority’s unilateral independence bid.
It is really amazing how badly they’ve done. And the above paragraph is not at all a partisan critique. Each of these factors is very obvious and visible even if they aren’t being covered in the main media very much. It can be summed up as failing to recognize the revolutionary Islamist threat; failing to support allies; being too soft on enemies; and not showing American leadership.
Obviously, jobs and the economy will be the number-one issue in the 2012 elections. But if crises in the Middle East blow up — as I think they will — and make Obama’s foreign policy look like a disaster, might that be the number-two issue?
Friday, August 26, 2011
Middle East Terrorist Scams and the Western Naivete that Empowers Them
By Barry Rubin
Rockets from the Gaza Strip continue to pound Israel. And much of the Western media blames: Israel. I want to explain again how this system works:
What follows is a seven-point pattern that goes something like this: Someone shoots at your spouse, you punch the attacker, he yells, "Ceasefire!" then kicks you in the groin and takes some more shots at your spouse. You try to defend yourself. The police stand by doing nothing and then declare you to be the aggressor for breaking the ceasefire.
And now a word from our sponsor:
Tired of reading the same old thing about the world? Depressed that the claims and predictions of other mass media and blogs don't come true? Then take just one Rubin Reports a day and you may be sadder but you will be far wiser. Five out of six good Middle East experts (true, a very tiny proportion of the whole group) recommend Rubin Reports.
I ask you to give a contribution to the GLORIA Center, tax-deductible in the United States. When I say that every dollar, pound, Euro, and shekel counts I am not exaggerating in the least. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card can be made at: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
Click Donate button.
Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
If you need information on donations made in the United Kingdom--not a reference to Saudi Arabia--let me know.
And now back to "Rubin Reports!"
Read the whole article!
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/26/middle-east-terrorist-scams-and-the-western-naivete-that-empowers-them/
Rockets from the Gaza Strip continue to pound Israel. And much of the Western media blames: Israel. I want to explain again how this system works:
What follows is a seven-point pattern that goes something like this: Someone shoots at your spouse, you punch the attacker, he yells, "Ceasefire!" then kicks you in the groin and takes some more shots at your spouse. You try to defend yourself. The police stand by doing nothing and then declare you to be the aggressor for breaking the ceasefire.
And now a word from our sponsor:
Tired of reading the same old thing about the world? Depressed that the claims and predictions of other mass media and blogs don't come true? Then take just one Rubin Reports a day and you may be sadder but you will be far wiser. Five out of six good Middle East experts (true, a very tiny proportion of the whole group) recommend Rubin Reports.
I ask you to give a contribution to the GLORIA Center, tax-deductible in the United States. When I say that every dollar, pound, Euro, and shekel counts I am not exaggerating in the least. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card can be made at: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com
Click Donate button.
Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
If you need information on donations made in the United Kingdom--not a reference to Saudi Arabia--let me know.
And now back to "Rubin Reports!"
Read the whole article!
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/26/middle-east-terrorist-scams-and-the-western-naivete-that-empowers-them/
Thursday, August 25, 2011
What's REALLY Happening in the Middle East Today
By Barry Rubin
--What do the Egyptian generals think and what do they know?
--Why is Israel not attacking harder into the Gaza Strip?
--How is Hamas trying to provoke an Egypt-Israel war?
--Where are terrorists getting their guns?
--How is Turkey turning into an Islamist-ruled police state and in what way is the Obama Administration acting crazy toward Turkey?
--What is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt demanding now?
--What's the quote of the day from the Middle East?
--And what does the head of a key human rights group think is the main thing denied Arabs regarding freedom of speech (you'll love this one)?
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/25/whats-really-happening-in-the-middle-east-today/
--What do the Egyptian generals think and what do they know?
--Why is Israel not attacking harder into the Gaza Strip?
--How is Hamas trying to provoke an Egypt-Israel war?
--Where are terrorists getting their guns?
--How is Turkey turning into an Islamist-ruled police state and in what way is the Obama Administration acting crazy toward Turkey?
--What is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt demanding now?
--What's the quote of the day from the Middle East?
--And what does the head of a key human rights group think is the main thing denied Arabs regarding freedom of speech (you'll love this one)?
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/25/whats-really-happening-in-the-middle-east-today/
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
With Glenn Beck By The Temple’s Walls
By Barry Rubin
Glenn Beck’s program in Israel went off without a hitch, ending in a rally on the southern side of the Old City of Jerusalem. About 1000 people were in attendance, mostly Americans who’d come to Jerusalem at Beck’s urging but with a sprinkling of Israelis, including a fair proportion of Orthodox.
With the Old City wall’s to his right and in front of him, and the al-Aqsa mosque looming quite close on his right, Beck handled himself with a mixture of audaciousness toward his enemies and sensitivity toward his friends. He announced a global movement, to be headquartered in Texas, to encourage average people to act against injustice though the details of its scope and goals weren't clear.
While many fulminated against Beck and his Israel project it was hard to find something he specifically said or did that should provoke such feelings. For example, a presentation on the history of Jerusalem was careful to cite Jewish, Christian, and Muslim connections with the city in a very balanced manner, as the call for prayer wafted from a nearby minaret.
Beck’s mission was to raise support for Israel and the 1500 viewing parties around the world—including such places as China and Pakistan—guaranteed that many heard the message. He is seeking to reverse the trend in which “sophisticated folk,” my phrase, sympathize with terrorist groups and revolutionary Islamist organizations rather than a democratic state defending itself.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/24/with-glenn-beck-by-the-temple%e2%80%99s-walls/
Glenn Beck’s program in Israel went off without a hitch, ending in a rally on the southern side of the Old City of Jerusalem. About 1000 people were in attendance, mostly Americans who’d come to Jerusalem at Beck’s urging but with a sprinkling of Israelis, including a fair proportion of Orthodox.
With the Old City wall’s to his right and in front of him, and the al-Aqsa mosque looming quite close on his right, Beck handled himself with a mixture of audaciousness toward his enemies and sensitivity toward his friends. He announced a global movement, to be headquartered in Texas, to encourage average people to act against injustice though the details of its scope and goals weren't clear.
While many fulminated against Beck and his Israel project it was hard to find something he specifically said or did that should provoke such feelings. For example, a presentation on the history of Jerusalem was careful to cite Jewish, Christian, and Muslim connections with the city in a very balanced manner, as the call for prayer wafted from a nearby minaret.
Beck’s mission was to raise support for Israel and the 1500 viewing parties around the world—including such places as China and Pakistan—guaranteed that many heard the message. He is seeking to reverse the trend in which “sophisticated folk,” my phrase, sympathize with terrorist groups and revolutionary Islamist organizations rather than a democratic state defending itself.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/24/with-glenn-beck-by-the-temple%e2%80%99s-walls/
Egyptians in Terror Attack? Warning from Egypt to Israel? Where is U.S. Leadership? Playing Golf
By Barry Rubin
Breaking stories:
--Can Obama claim credit for a victory in Egypt?
--Were Egyptian terrorists involved in cross-border attacks on Israel?
--Did the Egyptian government warn Israel not to attack the Gaza Strip despite the barrage of rockets on Israel?
--Why did Israel not retaliate more against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip and how much was Hamas involved in the attack?
--Will a U.S. policy failure in Egypt lead to a future war?
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/24/egyptians-in-terror-attack-warning-from-egypt-to-israel-where-is-u-s-leadership-playing-golf/
Breaking stories:
--Can Obama claim credit for a victory in Egypt?
--Were Egyptian terrorists involved in cross-border attacks on Israel?
--Did the Egyptian government warn Israel not to attack the Gaza Strip despite the barrage of rockets on Israel?
--Why did Israel not retaliate more against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip and how much was Hamas involved in the attack?
--Will a U.S. policy failure in Egypt lead to a future war?
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/24/egyptians-in-terror-attack-warning-from-egypt-to-israel-where-is-u-s-leadership-playing-golf/
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Why an Earthquake in America Is Propaganda for MIddle Eastern Anti-Americans
By Barry Rubin
You can bet that the leadership in Iran and other countries; many Middle East media outlets; and revolutionary Islamist groups will proclaim that the earthquake that hit Washington and the area around it to be the work of divine intervention to smite the evil American rulers. Remember, this is the evil U.S. government of President Barack Obama, who thinks he’s proven himself the friend of Muslims and Arabs beyond any doubt. They will view it as proving that the final triumph of Islam is at hand.
It would not matter much if a small fringe of extremists believed this but the size of that group will be far larger. To understand that this kind of thing takes place and is really meaningful is very hard for Western observers.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/23/earthquake-in-america-means-propaganda-opportunity-for-middle-eastern-anti-americans/
You can bet that the leadership in Iran and other countries; many Middle East media outlets; and revolutionary Islamist groups will proclaim that the earthquake that hit Washington and the area around it to be the work of divine intervention to smite the evil American rulers. Remember, this is the evil U.S. government of President Barack Obama, who thinks he’s proven himself the friend of Muslims and Arabs beyond any doubt. They will view it as proving that the final triumph of Islam is at hand.
It would not matter much if a small fringe of extremists believed this but the size of that group will be far larger. To understand that this kind of thing takes place and is really meaningful is very hard for Western observers.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/23/earthquake-in-america-means-propaganda-opportunity-for-middle-eastern-anti-americans/
A Tale of Two Intellectuals: Treasuring or Despising Freedom
By Barry Rubin
In a real sense, there was more intellectual freedom in the Arabic-speaking world in 1930 or 1940 then there is today. Long years of nationalist dictatorship have been more repressive than the oligarchical democracies of the pre-1952 (the year an Egyptian military coup brought in the era of Arab nationalist rule), while the power of Islamic and Islamist intimidation is far stronger today, being so well organized and ideologically self-conscious.
Consider this little tale, which encapsulates a great deal about Multiculturalism, Political Correctness, and the folly of our contemporary world. Tahar ben Jelloun, born in Morocco, is a very successful writer in France. He migrated to France in 1971 at the age of 26.
As the Paris Review describes him:
“His most recent book, &amp;lt;em&amp;gt;Racism Explained to My Daughter &amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;was a best-seller; and in 1987 he was awarded the Prix Goncourt for his novel The Sacred Night, which was the first book by an Arab writer to be so honored. For the past two years he has been shortlisted for the Nobel Prize in Literature.”
I don’t know his work but he is clearly very well-versed in Western culture, he has written about political corruption and the situation of women in the Arab world as well as a new book about "racism" in France.
The interviewer asked him, “If you lived in North Africa and wrote in Arabic, what could you write now in a fundamentalist climate?”
He answered:
“It would be impossible to write anything-—it would be suicidal....
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/23/a-tale-of-two-intellectuals-treasuring-or-dispising-freedom/
In a real sense, there was more intellectual freedom in the Arabic-speaking world in 1930 or 1940 then there is today. Long years of nationalist dictatorship have been more repressive than the oligarchical democracies of the pre-1952 (the year an Egyptian military coup brought in the era of Arab nationalist rule), while the power of Islamic and Islamist intimidation is far stronger today, being so well organized and ideologically self-conscious.
Consider this little tale, which encapsulates a great deal about Multiculturalism, Political Correctness, and the folly of our contemporary world. Tahar ben Jelloun, born in Morocco, is a very successful writer in France. He migrated to France in 1971 at the age of 26.
As the Paris Review describes him:
“His most recent book, &amp;lt;em&amp;gt;Racism Explained to My Daughter &amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;was a best-seller; and in 1987 he was awarded the Prix Goncourt for his novel The Sacred Night, which was the first book by an Arab writer to be so honored. For the past two years he has been shortlisted for the Nobel Prize in Literature.”
I don’t know his work but he is clearly very well-versed in Western culture, he has written about political corruption and the situation of women in the Arab world as well as a new book about "racism" in France.
The interviewer asked him, “If you lived in North Africa and wrote in Arabic, what could you write now in a fundamentalist climate?”
He answered:
“It would be impossible to write anything-—it would be suicidal....
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/23/a-tale-of-two-intellectuals-treasuring-or-dispising-freedom/
Monday, August 22, 2011
Libya: The Dictator Has Fallen! Long Live [Fill in the Blank]!
By Barry Rubin
As NATO jets bombed the military positions of Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, the watching rebels cheered, “Allah Akhbar!” Now that is a common Muslim expression, not just used by Islamists, and yet there is something symbolic about it. Allah did not bring the rebels victory, the United States and Europe did. Nevertheless, Allah will get the credit.
And that means the triumph will be attributed to the rebels’ piety rather than the West’s warplanes. In political terms, Islamism is likely to be more attractive than a pro-Western stance. But that doesn't mean Libya will be an Islamist state; it merely means it won't be a democratic, pro-Western one.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/22/libya-the-dictator-has-fallen-long-live-fill-in-the-blank/
As NATO jets bombed the military positions of Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, the watching rebels cheered, “Allah Akhbar!” Now that is a common Muslim expression, not just used by Islamists, and yet there is something symbolic about it. Allah did not bring the rebels victory, the United States and Europe did. Nevertheless, Allah will get the credit.
And that means the triumph will be attributed to the rebels’ piety rather than the West’s warplanes. In political terms, Islamism is likely to be more attractive than a pro-Western stance. But that doesn't mean Libya will be an Islamist state; it merely means it won't be a democratic, pro-Western one.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/22/libya-the-dictator-has-fallen-long-live-fill-in-the-blank/
Glenn Beck and Christian Supporters: Love for Israel; Egypt: Building War Hysteria
By Barry Rubin
The first event in Glenn Beck’s series of events in support of Israel was an outstanding success, though walking through a minefield of sensitivities. Held in the historic Roman-build coliseum in Caesarea, the program mixed Christian and Jewish themes—stressing the commonality of world views and spiritual values....
The call for support of Israel comes at a critical moment. In addition to the terrorist attack on the Egypt-Israel border and a foiled kidnapping attempt in Bersheva, more than 100 rockets struck Israel over the weekend. Three longer-range Grad missiles were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome system which passed its first series test in combat conditions.
At an emergency meeting of the Israeli parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, committee, Shaul Mofaz, a retired general and the number-two leader of the center-left Kadima Party, called for Israel to hit Hamas hard in order to "topple their infrastructures and create a system of ties with Egypt in order to prevent terrorism coming from its border."...
Within Egypt the old anti-Israel hysteria is building again. An Egyptian who took down the flag from Israel’s embassy—located in an ordinary apartment building—has become a national hero. Speaking live on al-Jazira television, he said, "Millions of Arabs want to pull that flag….This is a message to Israel that we can send millions of martyrs for the good of our country," he said. A mob burned the flag, chanting, "The path to Jerusalem leads through Cairo."
<a>One “liberal” activist remarked,</a> “After the revolution people don't believe there should be concessions to an apartheid regime and what he did was take action in reshaping the official stance."...
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/22/glenn-beck-love-for-israel-egypt-building-war-hysteria/
The first event in Glenn Beck’s series of events in support of Israel was an outstanding success, though walking through a minefield of sensitivities. Held in the historic Roman-build coliseum in Caesarea, the program mixed Christian and Jewish themes—stressing the commonality of world views and spiritual values....
The call for support of Israel comes at a critical moment. In addition to the terrorist attack on the Egypt-Israel border and a foiled kidnapping attempt in Bersheva, more than 100 rockets struck Israel over the weekend. Three longer-range Grad missiles were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome system which passed its first series test in combat conditions.
At an emergency meeting of the Israeli parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, committee, Shaul Mofaz, a retired general and the number-two leader of the center-left Kadima Party, called for Israel to hit Hamas hard in order to "topple their infrastructures and create a system of ties with Egypt in order to prevent terrorism coming from its border."...
Within Egypt the old anti-Israel hysteria is building again. An Egyptian who took down the flag from Israel’s embassy—located in an ordinary apartment building—has become a national hero. Speaking live on al-Jazira television, he said, "Millions of Arabs want to pull that flag….This is a message to Israel that we can send millions of martyrs for the good of our country," he said. A mob burned the flag, chanting, "The path to Jerusalem leads through Cairo."
<a>One “liberal” activist remarked,</a> “After the revolution people don't believe there should be concessions to an apartheid regime and what he did was take action in reshaping the official stance."...
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/22/glenn-beck-love-for-israel-egypt-building-war-hysteria/
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Glenn Beck is Correct on the Middle East; Let’s Analyze Why That’s True
This article was published in the Jerusalem Post. I own the copyright and have made some additions in this text to provide some fuller explanation of several points so I ask that you read and link to this version.
By Barry Rubin
Having studied the Middle East professionally for 35 years, written or edited more than 40 books on the region, and having a PhD in Middle East history, let me make it perfectly clear: Glenn Beck, who is holding several rallies in Israel this week, has a better grasp of Middle East politics than most Western experts, not to mention Western leaders.
Certainly, Beck makes silly mistakes on factual matters and details. Yet what’s important is that he comprehends the big picture. I don’t say this based on a superficial view or on his support for Israel. As part of the GLORIA Center’s project on understanding current American politics and debates I have monitored virtually every television and radio show Beck has done over the last two years. When people voice absurd and slanderous stereotypes about Beck, it turns out they haven’t actually listened to what he’s been saying.
Why has Beck gotten things right that so many others have missed or distorted? There are five key reasons: Common sense; courage; knowing the difference between right and wrong, willingness to learn, and readiness to admit when one has been wrong. These are virtues often lacking among those with more elegant reputations and impressive diplomas.
What has he gotten right?
1. The main threat in the Middle East is revolutionary Islamism and the United States must combat it.
Revolutionary Islamism includes on its side: Iran, Syria, Hizballah (largely controlling Lebanon), Hamas (governing the Gaza Strip), and the Muslim Brotherhood as well as al-Qaida and, more subtly, the regime governing Turkey. It is an ideology innately hostile to the West, the United States, and Israel. It cannot be bought off or moderated. Revolutionary Islamists will either take over the Middle East or be defeated.
2. The problem is not Islam as a religion but revolutionary Islamism as a political ideology that draws on normative Islam to produce its own plausible interpretation.
While falsely accused of “Islamophobia,” Beck has correctly drawn the distinction between Islam and revolutionary Islamism. Those claiming Islam is “a religion of peace” miss the radicalism easily drawn from its texts as well as the large and growing Islamist forces. Those claiming Islam is inherently extremist miss most of its actual history and the tremendous battle going on among Muslims,
3. The revolutionary Islamist side is winning.
In the last year, revolutionary Islamism has advanced in Egypt, the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Turkey, and potentially Syria, Libya, and Tunisia.
4. The “Arab Spring” contains many dangers.
The unqualified Western enthusiasm for the “Arab Spring” ignored the threat of growing Islamist power. Those of us who warned beginning in January about the Muslim Brotherhood’ radicalism and power were ridiculed, despite the fact that every statement it has made for decades has proven this point. Even now, many are in denial about the Brotherhood becoming Egypt’s strongest single party in parliament and in writing the country’s new constitution. The regime that emerges might not be Islamist but will be radical, anti-American, and dangerously hostile toward Israel.
5. Israel just happens to be largely right and deserves support
Israel has been in a “Twilight Zone” situation. Eighteen years ago, Israel took a tremendous risk for peace by signing an agreement with the PLO, agreeing to establish an armed Palestinian Authority, and negotiating toward the creation of a Palestinian state, Not to mention later offering the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for peace, withdrawing from south Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and much of the West Bank.
Yet the more risks for peace Israel took, the more concessions made, the more restraint shown, the more it was slandered and said not to want peace. The more Israel sought a two-state solution, the more people in the West advocated a “no-Israel-state” solution. Beck has cut through this nonsense to point out a simple fact: Israel wants a negotiated compromise and stable peace based on a two-state solution; the Palestinian Authority—not to mention Hamas—doesn’t.
6. One Man’s Terrorist…Is Still a Terrorist
There is no romanticism in the deliberate murder of civilians, systematic incitement of hatred, and goal of establishing a totalitarian society. Bad ends hardly justify bad means.
7. The Obama Administration has messed up the Middle East to a phenomenal extent.
For details you can read what I’ve written about this since January 2009.
8. One should be fearless in facing intimidation and politically motivated ridicule.
Yes, it gets tiring to be slandered and misquoted but a lot is at stake here. Popularity among current Western elites and career advancement cannot be the main priority at present. We live at a time when governments and intellectuals surrender at the merest hint of being called names or faced with threats of violence.
9. We must reevaluate friends and enemies in this new era of revolutionary Islamism and post-Marxist leftism.
In the past, Jews often saw conservatives and religious Christians as threats for good reasons. But we’re no longer in the nineteenth or even twentieth centuries. Conservatives and Christians aren’t drooling to convert, kill, or use Jews to bring on the apocalypse. That’s out-dated. While doing everything possible to work with liberals and social democrats, we must understand—whatever our personal political views—that Israel and the Jewish people have a new set of allies.
Why have these groups changed their views on Jews? With religion imperiled in the West, they see Jews as fellow believers rather than—as in past antisemitism—corrosive atheists and Jesus-killers. They see Israel as an embodiment of the nation-state and admire its ability to defend itself, rather than considering Jews to be cosmopolitan subversives and cowardly pacifists. Rather than view Jews as imperiling Western civilization, they view Israel as facing the same enemies they believe to be doing so today.
An important issue—in fact, the key test—was how conservatives would deal with the presence of so many Jews among their opponents. Historically, that situation was a prime factor in an antisemitic narrative on the right. The solution has been to perceive leftist Jews as traitors to their own Jewish people rather than to consider Jews as a whole to be the villain. Whether or not you agree with that assessment isn’t important in this context. What’s important is that this solves the political and religious right’s past inclination toward antisemitism.
10. Whatever mistakes the United States has made it is a good country and is the hope of the world.
Many countries and people everywhere yearn for America to revive itself, change the current administration’s policies, properly define friends and enemies, and take leadership internationally once again.
Any criticism one can make of Beck regarding Middle East issues rather pales in comparison to all of the above points on which he is quite correct. But then, as Jews, and Israelis most of all, should know, to be falsely reviled and have one’s image smeared is not proof of being wrong or evil.
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Uh-Oh, A Foretaste of The New Democratic Egypt: Radical Nationalists and "Liberal Islamists"
By Barry Rubin
There is still confusion regarding some details of the terrorist assault by Gaza Palestinians affiliated with al-Qaida, from Egypt, into Israel, and then back into Egypt. Israeli survivors of the attack say the terrorists were wearing Egyptian army uniforms and later attacked Egyptian soldiers.
At one point, either confused or after the terrorists hid among a group of Egyptian soldiers dressed the same way, Israeli soldiers fired and reportedly killed three real Egyptian soldiers. Israel has apologized in line with international norms.
Amr Moussa, the man most likely to be Egypt's next president and known for his hatred of Israel and strong dislike of the United States (a radical nationalist who opposes Islamism but might make a deal with the Brotherhood to get into power and to govern thereafter) gives a foretaste of his demagagic tendencies if elected. He tweeted:
“Israel has to realize that the days in which our sons are killed without an appropriate and strong reaction are forever gone.”
That sounds rather like a threat of war. Oh, he'll be just fine running Egypt, right?
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/21/uh-oh-a-foretaste-of-the-new-democratic-egypt-radical-nationalists-and-liberal-islamists/
There is still confusion regarding some details of the terrorist assault by Gaza Palestinians affiliated with al-Qaida, from Egypt, into Israel, and then back into Egypt. Israeli survivors of the attack say the terrorists were wearing Egyptian army uniforms and later attacked Egyptian soldiers.
At one point, either confused or after the terrorists hid among a group of Egyptian soldiers dressed the same way, Israeli soldiers fired and reportedly killed three real Egyptian soldiers. Israel has apologized in line with international norms.
Amr Moussa, the man most likely to be Egypt's next president and known for his hatred of Israel and strong dislike of the United States (a radical nationalist who opposes Islamism but might make a deal with the Brotherhood to get into power and to govern thereafter) gives a foretaste of his demagagic tendencies if elected. He tweeted:
“Israel has to realize that the days in which our sons are killed without an appropriate and strong reaction are forever gone.”
That sounds rather like a threat of war. Oh, he'll be just fine running Egypt, right?
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/21/uh-oh-a-foretaste-of-the-new-democratic-egypt-radical-nationalists-and-liberal-islamists/
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Obama Administration Eyes Are Shut on Completely Predictable Middle East Crises
Summary: Middle East pollicy is likely to be the second or third most important issue in the 2012 election. Crises in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, and with the Palestinians are likely to erupt between now and then. Yet there is little talk or analysis of what's probably going to happen
By Barry Rubin
A Hollywood mogul once explained that he didn't get headaches, he gave headaches to others. President Barack Obama's determination not to give headaches to America's enemies guarantees that he brings them onto U.S. interests. Here are examples happening right now and certain to blow up before the November 2012 elections.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/20/obama-administration-eyes-are-closed-on-completely-predictable-middle-east-crises/
By Barry Rubin
A Hollywood mogul once explained that he didn't get headaches, he gave headaches to others. President Barack Obama's determination not to give headaches to America's enemies guarantees that he brings them onto U.S. interests. Here are examples happening right now and certain to blow up before the November 2012 elections.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/20/obama-administration-eyes-are-closed-on-completely-predictable-middle-east-crises/
Friday, August 19, 2011
Breaking News: More Details on Terror Attack From Egypt; Terrorists Attack Egyptian Army
By Barry Rubin
A gunfight is going on in the early afternoon of Friday between terrorists, probably from the Gaza-based Popular Resistance Committees, an al-Qaida affiliate, and the Egyptian army. The battle is taking place on the Egyptian side of the border near where terrorists killed 8 Israelis on Thursday.
At least two suicide bombers have targeted Egyptian soldiers in the area. No casualty figures are available. It is estimated that between seven to ten terrorists are involved in the battle with the Egyptian army. On Thursday, Israeli forces believe that they killed seven terrorists, though two of the bodies are on the Egyptian side of the border.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/19/breaking-news-more-details-on-terror-attack-from-egypt-terrorists-attack-egyptian-army/
A gunfight is going on in the early afternoon of Friday between terrorists, probably from the Gaza-based Popular Resistance Committees, an al-Qaida affiliate, and the Egyptian army. The battle is taking place on the Egyptian side of the border near where terrorists killed 8 Israelis on Thursday.
At least two suicide bombers have targeted Egyptian soldiers in the area. No casualty figures are available. It is estimated that between seven to ten terrorists are involved in the battle with the Egyptian army. On Thursday, Israeli forces believe that they killed seven terrorists, though two of the bodies are on the Egyptian side of the border.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/19/breaking-news-more-details-on-terror-attack-from-egypt-terrorists-attack-egyptian-army/
Finally: Obama Administration Calls for End to Syrian Dictatorship But Reveals Its Own Worldview
By Barry Rubin
After months of rebellion in Syria and heavy repression there, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has finally called for the downfall of that country’s dictatorship.
That is a welcome event though this announcement carries indications that it has taken too long and is not entirely being done for the right reasons. Clinton began:
“For months, the world has borne witness to the Assad regime’s contempt for its own people. In peaceful demonstrations across the nation, Syrians are demanding their universal human rights. The regime has answered their demands with empty promises and horrific violence, torturing opposition leaders, laying siege to cities, slaughtering thousands of unarmed civilians, including children.”
In other words, the U.S. government has waited a really long time (“for months”) and nobody has done anything (“borne witness”) while the regime has been given every chance by the Obama Administration to offer some meaningless compromises (“empty promises”) in order to preserve an anti-American, terrorist-supporting, aggressive, repressive dictatorship. But it didn't slaughter enough civilians and children to repress the revolution so now it must go away.
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/19/finally-obama-administration-calls-for-end-to-syrian-dictatorship-but-reveals-its-own-worldview/
After months of rebellion in Syria and heavy repression there, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has finally called for the downfall of that country’s dictatorship.
That is a welcome event though this announcement carries indications that it has taken too long and is not entirely being done for the right reasons. Clinton began:
“For months, the world has borne witness to the Assad regime’s contempt for its own people. In peaceful demonstrations across the nation, Syrians are demanding their universal human rights. The regime has answered their demands with empty promises and horrific violence, torturing opposition leaders, laying siege to cities, slaughtering thousands of unarmed civilians, including children.”
In other words, the U.S. government has waited a really long time (“for months”) and nobody has done anything (“borne witness”) while the regime has been given every chance by the Obama Administration to offer some meaningless compromises (“empty promises”) in order to preserve an anti-American, terrorist-supporting, aggressive, repressive dictatorship. But it didn't slaughter enough civilians and children to repress the revolution so now it must go away.
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/19/finally-obama-administration-calls-for-end-to-syrian-dictatorship-but-reveals-its-own-worldview/
Thursday, August 18, 2011
News Flash: New Phase in War as Terrorists Cross Egypt-Israel Border, Many Dead
By Barry Rubin
This isn’t just another terrorist attack—it’s a major escalation, a new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict in two ways. First, it is the bitter fruit of the U.S.-backed downfall of the government of President Husni Mubarak in Egypt. Second, it is probably the first successful al-Qaida attack on Israel. (The Palestinian Popular Resistance Committees, a Gaza-based al-Qaida affiliate is the prime suspect.)
A group of up to 20 terrorists using vehicles fired across the Egypt-Israel border and then crossed into Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars, and an RPG as well as handguns.
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
We need your contribution. Tax-deductible donation by PayPal or credit card: click Donate button: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com. Checks: "American Friends of IDC.” “For GLORIA Center” on memo line. Mail: American Friends of IDC, 116 East 16th St., 11th Fl., NY, NY 10003.
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Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/18/news-flash-new-phase-in-war-as-terrorists-cross-egypt-israel-border-many-dead/
Note: This article will be revised frequently as updates become available
Do Iraqi Documents Give Some Hints About the Iranian Regime's Nuclear Strategy?
By Barry Rubin
Using captured Iraqi documents, Hal Brands and David Palkki, <a href="http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201108.brands_palkki.iraqnuclear.html%22%3Ehave published </a>an interesting short paper for the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), “Why did Saddam Want the Bomb? The Israel Factor and the Iraqi Nuclear Program.”
They begin:
“On March 27, 1979, Saddam Hussein…laid out his vision for a long, grinding war against Israel in a private meeting of high-level Baathist officials. Iraq, he explained, would seek to obtain a nuclear weapon from ‘our Soviet friends,’ use the resulting deterrent power to counteract Israeli threats of nuclear retaliation, and thereby enable a "patient war”—a war of attrition—that would reclaim Arab lands lost in the Six Day War of 1967. As Saddam put it, nuclear weapons would allow Iraq to “guarantee the long war that is destructive to our enemy, and take at our leisure each meter of land and drown the enemy with rivers of blood.”
While an analogy doesn’t prove the point, I think that contemporary Iranian thinking is equivalent: get nuclear weapons and use them for what I call a defensive umbrella for aggression.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/18/do-iraqi-documents-give-some-hints-about-the-iranian-regimes-nuclear-strategy/
Using captured Iraqi documents, Hal Brands and David Palkki, <a href="http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201108.brands_palkki.iraqnuclear.html%22%3Ehave published </a>an interesting short paper for the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), “Why did Saddam Want the Bomb? The Israel Factor and the Iraqi Nuclear Program.”
They begin:
“On March 27, 1979, Saddam Hussein…laid out his vision for a long, grinding war against Israel in a private meeting of high-level Baathist officials. Iraq, he explained, would seek to obtain a nuclear weapon from ‘our Soviet friends,’ use the resulting deterrent power to counteract Israeli threats of nuclear retaliation, and thereby enable a "patient war”—a war of attrition—that would reclaim Arab lands lost in the Six Day War of 1967. As Saddam put it, nuclear weapons would allow Iraq to “guarantee the long war that is destructive to our enemy, and take at our leisure each meter of land and drown the enemy with rivers of blood.”
While an analogy doesn’t prove the point, I think that contemporary Iranian thinking is equivalent: get nuclear weapons and use them for what I call a defensive umbrella for aggression.
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/18/do-iraqi-documents-give-some-hints-about-the-iranian-regimes-nuclear-strategy/
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Radio Interview
If you want to hear a brief radio interview with me on Middle East politics and especially Egypt you can go here:
http://securefreedomradio.podbean.com/2011/08/15/clifford-may-barry-rubin-sen-jim-demint-gordon-chang/
And click on Listen Now
http://securefreedomradio.podbean.com/2011/08/15/clifford-may-barry-rubin-sen-jim-demint-gordon-chang/
And click on Listen Now
How Obama Administration's Ideological Obsessions Trash U.S. Interests
By Barry Rubin
It’s amazing how an entire foreign policy philosophy can be contained in so few words, as in this short paragraph:
“`It’s not going to be any news if the United States says Assad needs to go,’” Mrs. Clinton said at the National Defense University. `O.K., fine, what’s next? If Turkey says it, if King Abdullah says it, if other people say it, there is no way the Assad regime can ignore it.’”
Ladies and gentlemen I ask you to explore with me how the downfall of not just a superpower but a great power is justified in this passage. See, too, how history is totally garbled, the lives of thousands ended painfully, and millions subjected to tyranny.
And that’s an understatement.
Read it all:
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Egypt's "Moderates" Unite? A Step Forward But Not as Good as it Seems
By Barry Rubin
Fourteen “liberal” groups have formed The Egyptian Bloc to contest the parliament elections that might be held in November. If they actually do run a single slate of candidates there is a real chance to block the power of the Muslim Brotherhood. But that’s a big “if.”
And there are some other problems you won’t be seeing in Western media coverage of this development:
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/16/egypts-moderates-unite-a-step-forward-but-not-as-good-as-it-seems/
Fourteen “liberal” groups have formed The Egyptian Bloc to contest the parliament elections that might be held in November. If they actually do run a single slate of candidates there is a real chance to block the power of the Muslim Brotherhood. But that’s a big “if.”
And there are some other problems you won’t be seeing in Western media coverage of this development:
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/16/egypts-moderates-unite-a-step-forward-but-not-as-good-as-it-seems/
Monday, August 15, 2011
Symbol of Egypt's Revolution On Trial For Advocating Revolution
By Barry Rubin
Asmaa Mahfouz, the April 6 Youth Movement leader who said she began the Egyptian revolution with a tweet, has been arrested, charged with inciting violence against the military and insulting the armed forces, and will be tried by a military court. This is, of course, the kind of irony that makes a great article.
Personally, I still believe that the military will be glad when it hands back power to civilians and can return to its real business: making money for the officers.
But what did Mahfouz says that got her arrested? Here it is:
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/15/symbol-of-egypts-revolution-on-trial-for-advocating-revolution/
Asmaa Mahfouz, the April 6 Youth Movement leader who said she began the Egyptian revolution with a tweet, has been arrested, charged with inciting violence against the military and insulting the armed forces, and will be tried by a military court. This is, of course, the kind of irony that makes a great article.
Personally, I still believe that the military will be glad when it hands back power to civilians and can return to its real business: making money for the officers.
But what did Mahfouz says that got her arrested? Here it is:
Read it all
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/15/symbol-of-egypts-revolution-on-trial-for-advocating-revolution/
Syria’s Revolution: A Bloodbath the West Cannot (Well, Should Not) Ignore
By Barry Rubin
There’s a real war going on with real massive human rights’ violations, real massacres, and real alternatives at stake. Yet the world slumbers about it. Oh sure, there are expressions of dismay at the lowest level of diplomatic language and cosmetic sanctions. Meanwhile, artillery and tanks are being used directly to kill as many civilian, nonviolent protestors as possible. Those captured are being tortured.
These events make Egypt’s revolution look like a picnic and Libya’s civil war look like a scrum. Yet where is the massive outpouring of Western demonstrators; the teach-ins; the outrage; the international resolutions; the humanitarian action on Syria?
It is a waste of time, mine and yours, to write about double standards. Double standards have become standard. Nor will I inform you by bewailing the front-page coverage, misplaced outrage, and outright slander devoted to the smallest incident in Israel-Palestinian frictions compared to these events. The same applies to the grilling of America for real and imagined sins.
And yet to keep things in proportion we must constantly remind ourselves and others that there are real bloodthirsty dictatorships in the world, willing to stop at nothing, bound by no rules that are either self-imposed by morality or restricted by free institutions. In comparison to these—the terrorist-supporting, the hate-inciting, the consistently torturing, the always lying—is the reason why democracy is the best system and our cause is as just as anything that’s going to be seen in this sad and tragic world.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/15/syria%e2%80%99s-revolution-a-bloodbath-the-west-cannot-ignore/
There’s a real war going on with real massive human rights’ violations, real massacres, and real alternatives at stake. Yet the world slumbers about it. Oh sure, there are expressions of dismay at the lowest level of diplomatic language and cosmetic sanctions. Meanwhile, artillery and tanks are being used directly to kill as many civilian, nonviolent protestors as possible. Those captured are being tortured.
These events make Egypt’s revolution look like a picnic and Libya’s civil war look like a scrum. Yet where is the massive outpouring of Western demonstrators; the teach-ins; the outrage; the international resolutions; the humanitarian action on Syria?
It is a waste of time, mine and yours, to write about double standards. Double standards have become standard. Nor will I inform you by bewailing the front-page coverage, misplaced outrage, and outright slander devoted to the smallest incident in Israel-Palestinian frictions compared to these events. The same applies to the grilling of America for real and imagined sins.
And yet to keep things in proportion we must constantly remind ourselves and others that there are real bloodthirsty dictatorships in the world, willing to stop at nothing, bound by no rules that are either self-imposed by morality or restricted by free institutions. In comparison to these—the terrorist-supporting, the hate-inciting, the consistently torturing, the always lying—is the reason why democracy is the best system and our cause is as just as anything that’s going to be seen in this sad and tragic world.
Read it all:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/15/syria%e2%80%99s-revolution-a-bloodbath-the-west-cannot-ignore/
Saturday, August 13, 2011
The Big Split in the Revolutionary Islamist Movement: Sunni and Shia Blocs Emerge
This article was published in the Jerusalem Post but I present it here in an improved form. I own the rights so I ask you to read this version and link to it here.
By Barry Rubin
A development of huge importance is happening in the Middle East, equivalent perhaps to the Sino-Soviet conflict’s effect on the Cold War era: the division of revolutionary Islamists into separate Sunni and Shia camps.
Of course, there have always been tensions and conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims, notably bloody fighting in Iraq. Islamists often attempt to portray this as a Western conspiracy but most Muslims know it is a historical reality within Islam.
Iran’s regime tried, with some success, to bridge this gap, becoming patron of Sunni Hamas and majority Sunni Syria. Similarly, the non-Muslim (it pretends otherwise but most Muslims know the truth) Alawite-dominated Syrian regime claims to be Shia and sold itself for a while to Sunnis as a cross-confessional champion of resistance against Israel and the West.
The Sunni-Shia fighting in Iraq did not break this attempt to forge cross-confessional Islamist alliances. But now two other events have done so. The most important is the Syrian revolution. Everyone must take sides. Iran and Hizballah, itself a Shia group, sided with the Syrian regime. Egypt’s increasingly powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the Brotherhood-spawned Hamas are against the Syrian regime, hoping that their fellow Muslim Brotherhood allies will take over in Damascus.
Those who don’t understand this situation think that choosing against the Syrian regime is some proof that the Turkish stealth-Islamist government is moderate. No such thing. It is simply taking the Sunni side, also hoping that a congenial Islamist state will emerge as an even closer ally than President Bashar al-Assad has been for them.
The second event was the Egyptian revolution. Finally, the Brotherhood has the hope of establishing a Sunni Muslim Islamist power of its own, an alternative Islamist center to that of Iran. Possibilities also exist for a Sunni Islamist regime in Libya and at least a stronger Islamist political presence in Tunisia. Who needs Iran when you have your own Islamist or at least moving-toward-Islamism state?
Make no mistake. Both Islamist blocs hate the West and want to expel its influence from the Middle East and expand their own power by overthrowing additional regimes. Both Islamist blocs hate Israel and want to wipe it off the map. Neither group will be moderate in any way. But with inevitable competition, there will be less cooperation. Once again, the dream of unity ends in quarrels. There are now zero caliphates. In future, there are more likely to be two than just one.
How will this competition manifest itself?
Egypt: Since there is no Shia option there, Iran will try to get along with Egypt as a state, whether Cairo becomes an Islamist regime or merely a more Islamic, anti-American one. But the Brotherhood will see Egypt—just as the Arab nationalists once did—as the rightful leader of the Arabic-speaking world. Better Egypt-Iran relations are certain; an Egypt-Iran alliance is unlikely.
Palestinians: Competition over being the patron of Hamas. Egypt and the Brotherhood will win that one. The Palestinian Authority, lacking any reliable Arab ally—since the Saudis are still angry about Palestinian support for Saddam Hussein’s aggression back in 1990—will be weakened in its competition with Hamas. The PA’s response? Staying intransigent so it cannot be outflanked by the Islamists.
Syria: If the regime survives, it will align with the Shia, if it falls, the question is who takes over but it will certainly leave the Iranian bloc. An Islamist Syria would align with Egypt. While antagonistic toward Hizballah—Syria’s Lebanon policy would be very interesting—it would back Hamas completely
Lebanon: Currently, the Shia Islamist group, Hizballah, and other clients of Iran and Syria prevail. Sunni Islamism has been weak in Lebanon. Perhaps the Sunnis would build up Sunni Islamist groups and perhaps even align with the moderate, non-Islamist Sunni forces that oppose Hizballah-Syria hegemony?
Iraq: While being cautious in foreign involvements, the Iraqi government will tend toward the Shia side, knowing well that too much of a tilt could reopen internal conflicts. How’s this for a perfect example of how Middle East politics transcends Western rationality? The Syrian regime has supported massive Sunni Muslim terrorism against Iraq, its government, and the Shia majority. Now, however, the Iraqi government supports the survival of that Syrian regime because it is part of the Shia bloc! Indeed, high level Iraqi officials are publicly suggesting the Syrian revolution is a result of Saudi and Israeli manipulation. And another bizarre Middle East example: Iraq will manage a situation in which its two main allies are the United States and Iran.
Gulf kingdoms: The Saudis already play the game this way, viewing Iran as a Shia threat and protecting the smaller Gulf Arab states (notably Bahrain) against Shia reform or revolutionary movements. The Saudis already take an anti-Syria stance and oppose Syria-Hizballah-Iran (Shia) hegemony in Lebanon. They are also taking Jordan under their umbrella. These countries will not join an Islamist bloc but will view the Shia as the main threat.
What does this mean for the West and Israel? Given both Islamist blocs’ hostility, there’s no possibility of working with one against the other. U.S. policymakers might make that error, however, given their soft line on the supposedly moderate Brotherhood. That’s a danger. What U.S. policy should do is support all the anti-Islamist forces, but the moving vans will have to pull up to the White House before that happens.
The Islamists will be weaker, subverting each other’s attempts to take over or control various countries and movements. Yet growing sectarianism can also lead to really nasty communal massacres of Muslims by Muslims, as has already happened in Iraq. Syria is the place to watch for that development.
Finally, in competing to show their militancy and effectiveness in backing terrorism, the rate of attacks by both sides could well increase. Trying to prove that one is the “proper” Islamist side representing “authentic” Islam will also likely lead to reckless risk-taking, which a naïve West—assuming everyone wants to be a moderate and acts “rationally” according to their own definition—will be ill-equipped to handle.
A new phase in Middle East history is opening that the West must evaluate and act on. Since, of course, Western governments haven’t even caught up to the last two stages--revolutionary political Islamism is a huge strategic threat and it is best equipped to take advantage of the “Arab Spring”—they are unlikely to comprehend this one either.
PS: A reader asks:
What is Russia's attitude toward the Islamist movements?
They are establishing good relations with Hizballah and the Muslim Brotherhood particularly, they had been building a strong relationship with Syria before the upheaval; they have decent relations with Iran (critical at times but oppose sanctions so help them). In short, they are cozying up to the Islamists to undermine the US but not going beyond a certain point. Probably one factor behind the scenes is making deals that Islamist movements won't help Russia Islamists, an arrangement that seems to be working since only al-Qaida and Saudi institutions do so.
By Barry Rubin
A development of huge importance is happening in the Middle East, equivalent perhaps to the Sino-Soviet conflict’s effect on the Cold War era: the division of revolutionary Islamists into separate Sunni and Shia camps.
Of course, there have always been tensions and conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims, notably bloody fighting in Iraq. Islamists often attempt to portray this as a Western conspiracy but most Muslims know it is a historical reality within Islam.
Iran’s regime tried, with some success, to bridge this gap, becoming patron of Sunni Hamas and majority Sunni Syria. Similarly, the non-Muslim (it pretends otherwise but most Muslims know the truth) Alawite-dominated Syrian regime claims to be Shia and sold itself for a while to Sunnis as a cross-confessional champion of resistance against Israel and the West.
The Sunni-Shia fighting in Iraq did not break this attempt to forge cross-confessional Islamist alliances. But now two other events have done so. The most important is the Syrian revolution. Everyone must take sides. Iran and Hizballah, itself a Shia group, sided with the Syrian regime. Egypt’s increasingly powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the Brotherhood-spawned Hamas are against the Syrian regime, hoping that their fellow Muslim Brotherhood allies will take over in Damascus.
Those who don’t understand this situation think that choosing against the Syrian regime is some proof that the Turkish stealth-Islamist government is moderate. No such thing. It is simply taking the Sunni side, also hoping that a congenial Islamist state will emerge as an even closer ally than President Bashar al-Assad has been for them.
The second event was the Egyptian revolution. Finally, the Brotherhood has the hope of establishing a Sunni Muslim Islamist power of its own, an alternative Islamist center to that of Iran. Possibilities also exist for a Sunni Islamist regime in Libya and at least a stronger Islamist political presence in Tunisia. Who needs Iran when you have your own Islamist or at least moving-toward-Islamism state?
Make no mistake. Both Islamist blocs hate the West and want to expel its influence from the Middle East and expand their own power by overthrowing additional regimes. Both Islamist blocs hate Israel and want to wipe it off the map. Neither group will be moderate in any way. But with inevitable competition, there will be less cooperation. Once again, the dream of unity ends in quarrels. There are now zero caliphates. In future, there are more likely to be two than just one.
How will this competition manifest itself?
Egypt: Since there is no Shia option there, Iran will try to get along with Egypt as a state, whether Cairo becomes an Islamist regime or merely a more Islamic, anti-American one. But the Brotherhood will see Egypt—just as the Arab nationalists once did—as the rightful leader of the Arabic-speaking world. Better Egypt-Iran relations are certain; an Egypt-Iran alliance is unlikely.
Palestinians: Competition over being the patron of Hamas. Egypt and the Brotherhood will win that one. The Palestinian Authority, lacking any reliable Arab ally—since the Saudis are still angry about Palestinian support for Saddam Hussein’s aggression back in 1990—will be weakened in its competition with Hamas. The PA’s response? Staying intransigent so it cannot be outflanked by the Islamists.
Syria: If the regime survives, it will align with the Shia, if it falls, the question is who takes over but it will certainly leave the Iranian bloc. An Islamist Syria would align with Egypt. While antagonistic toward Hizballah—Syria’s Lebanon policy would be very interesting—it would back Hamas completely
Lebanon: Currently, the Shia Islamist group, Hizballah, and other clients of Iran and Syria prevail. Sunni Islamism has been weak in Lebanon. Perhaps the Sunnis would build up Sunni Islamist groups and perhaps even align with the moderate, non-Islamist Sunni forces that oppose Hizballah-Syria hegemony?
Iraq: While being cautious in foreign involvements, the Iraqi government will tend toward the Shia side, knowing well that too much of a tilt could reopen internal conflicts. How’s this for a perfect example of how Middle East politics transcends Western rationality? The Syrian regime has supported massive Sunni Muslim terrorism against Iraq, its government, and the Shia majority. Now, however, the Iraqi government supports the survival of that Syrian regime because it is part of the Shia bloc! Indeed, high level Iraqi officials are publicly suggesting the Syrian revolution is a result of Saudi and Israeli manipulation. And another bizarre Middle East example: Iraq will manage a situation in which its two main allies are the United States and Iran.
Gulf kingdoms: The Saudis already play the game this way, viewing Iran as a Shia threat and protecting the smaller Gulf Arab states (notably Bahrain) against Shia reform or revolutionary movements. The Saudis already take an anti-Syria stance and oppose Syria-Hizballah-Iran (Shia) hegemony in Lebanon. They are also taking Jordan under their umbrella. These countries will not join an Islamist bloc but will view the Shia as the main threat.
What does this mean for the West and Israel? Given both Islamist blocs’ hostility, there’s no possibility of working with one against the other. U.S. policymakers might make that error, however, given their soft line on the supposedly moderate Brotherhood. That’s a danger. What U.S. policy should do is support all the anti-Islamist forces, but the moving vans will have to pull up to the White House before that happens.
The Islamists will be weaker, subverting each other’s attempts to take over or control various countries and movements. Yet growing sectarianism can also lead to really nasty communal massacres of Muslims by Muslims, as has already happened in Iraq. Syria is the place to watch for that development.
Finally, in competing to show their militancy and effectiveness in backing terrorism, the rate of attacks by both sides could well increase. Trying to prove that one is the “proper” Islamist side representing “authentic” Islam will also likely lead to reckless risk-taking, which a naïve West—assuming everyone wants to be a moderate and acts “rationally” according to their own definition—will be ill-equipped to handle.
A new phase in Middle East history is opening that the West must evaluate and act on. Since, of course, Western governments haven’t even caught up to the last two stages--revolutionary political Islamism is a huge strategic threat and it is best equipped to take advantage of the “Arab Spring”—they are unlikely to comprehend this one either.
PS: A reader asks:
What is Russia's attitude toward the Islamist movements?
They are establishing good relations with Hizballah and the Muslim Brotherhood particularly, they had been building a strong relationship with Syria before the upheaval; they have decent relations with Iran (critical at times but oppose sanctions so help them). In short, they are cozying up to the Islamists to undermine the US but not going beyond a certain point. Probably one factor behind the scenes is making deals that Islamist movements won't help Russia Islamists, an arrangement that seems to be working since only al-Qaida and Saudi institutions do so.
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