Thursday, July 12, 2012

News Flash: A First Look at Egypt's New Constitution Shows a Careful Ambiguity On Islamic Rule


See also: Barry Rubin, “Natural Gas Exports Are a Key to Israel’s Future Success," Globes, ”http://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?fbdid=1000764078 [Hebrew].

By Barry Rubin

Although it isn’t official, the first two articles of Egypt’s new Constitution have been reportedly drafted by the committee of parliamentarians charged with that task. Article 1 defines Egypt as part of the Arab and Muslim nation, a compromise between acceptance of the country as a normal nation-state and its identity as either a purely Arab nationalist or Islamist entity.

Similarly, Article 2, according to Mohamed Emara, head of the committee responsible for drafting this section, says:

“Islam is the religion of the state, and Arabic is its official language, and the principles of Islamic Sharia are the main source for legislation. Christians and Jews shall resort to legislation derived from their own religions.”

There is some ambiguity here as to whether Egypt would thus be a Sharia state. On one hand, Islamic law is not made the sole source of legislation, while the word “principles” might mean that the interpretation will be loose, principles and not all of the details. Bourhamy says that this merely shows that Egypt isn’t a secular state.

On the other hand, though, both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis accepted this formulation. Since they want a Sharia state this implies they don't feel that phrasing blocks their goal. Moreover, the meaning of those “principles” will be defined not by the courts but by the al-Azhar mosque university.  While the leaders of that institution are more moderate than the Brotherhood and Salafis, presumably President Muhammad al-Mursi will replace them at some point with his own people.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

New Globama-Man Comic Strip: Globama-Man Versus the Supremes

Note: This comic strip is satire. If you do not like satire or wish only to read serious analyses of the Middle East and international affairs, you do not have to click here.

But if you like satire and wish to read/see something different that relates to the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare please click away! 

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Does Power Moderate Radicals? Where's the Proof?

By Barry Rubin

An interesting and important question about the Middle East (and one can treat it on a global level, too) is whether being in power or running in an election inevitably moderates those who are radicals. It is automatically accepted by many people that this is so. Yet an examination of evidence makes such behavior more rare than common.

Let’s begin by pointing out that some of the problem is the unthinking transference of things that might be true in private and personal life into the political sphere. As individuals mature and have experience, they often become more moderate. There are many cases of individual politicians “selling out” and abandoning more militant ideas to become corrupt. Neither case necessarily applies to systems, movements, or ideologies.

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Even more questionable is the view that the difficulties of having to make decisions in government forces leaders to become more responsible. For example, they learn that money is not unlimited and therefore priorities must be set.  Supposedly, they say to themselves: Hey, collecting the garbage and fixing the potholes is what's important, forget about all this silly stuff about fundamentally transforming society, imposing the Sharia, destroying Israel, or chasing America out of the Middle East!

A problem with this argument is that it leaves out the political advantages for rulers of using demagoguery, incitement, and populism. To stay in power a politician—particularly in a non-democratic country—gains advantage from militancy, real or feigned.

Another simplistic argument is that anyone who runs in elections and wins is automatically moderate because they participated in a legalistic, democratic process. This argument is quite full of holes. One should not confuse tactical caution with moderation. For example, President Hafiz al-Assad of Syria knew after 1973 that a direct confrontation with Israel was a losing proposition so instead he backed terrorist groups and used Lebanon as a launching pad for the attacks. Being radical does not necessarily mean being suicidal.


Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center  and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.






Monday, July 9, 2012

Globama-Man Stimulates the Gun Industry!

Click here for: The latest adventures of the world-famous superhero, Globama-Man, presented in the comic strip by Barry Rubin and Judah Rosenthal. Don't miss it!

Warning: This is satire. If you do not like satire please do not read this comic strip. It is intended to provide teachable moments and laughs in a world that doesn't have enough of them. We will soon return to our regularly scheduled Middle East analysis.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

The President's Innovative Fundraiser

[Warning: This is satire. If you do not like satire, loathe laughing, and only want me to write serious analytical articles on the Middle East, please do not read this article.]

On the positive side, the very short article includes a remarkable (almost mystical) true Civil War story I'm sure you've never heard before.