By Barry Rubin
"First make sure you're right,
then go ahead." --Davy Crockett, 1836
For almost two months I have
been talking and traveling through America trying to understand the country.
Soon I will begin a dozen-part series called "Lost" about the
reminder of the Obama term in the term in the Middle East and how
friendly countries and national interests can survive.
Meanwhile , though, it is adding
insult to injury for defenders of the U.S. policy to claim that I or someone
else would have more credibility if I didn't write for a “right-wing site.”
This is an extraordinarily important way that the debate is being narrowed and
dummied up.
First, of course, I would never
make a parallel argument. What matters is whether the claims have credibility.
Does it make sense? Is it internally consistent? Does it correspond with
otherwise known information? This is the path of logic, of the Enlightenment.
Reputation of the author might be a useful factor, too.
An argument from al-Qaida can be
quite correct regardless of where it comes from. Thus, this approach is part of
the de-rationality of Western thought today. It is a weapon: disregard
everything that comes from a source that disagrees with you on other issues.
Incidentally, while some have told
me that my language is too intemperate at times in criticizing Obama, I note
that they have not been any more successful in changing views or even--whenever
they speak out clearly--getting their ideas (as opposed to technical expertise)
to the public.
Second, if I wanted to write about
the so-called demographic threat (which I can prove in five minutes is
nonsense) or write that Israel must make peace right away I can publish it in
the NY Times.
So first they bar certain
arguments from the mass media and then they say that if you persist in making
certain arguments this proves bias because of the few remaining and smaller
places you are allowed to appear. In other words, first you bar people and arguments;
then you say that the fact that they are barred proves that they—not you—is the
biased one.
Let me tell you a story. In 1991
Senator Charles Percy, a man who was then highly regarded and considered
himself something of an expert on the Middle East, said he didn't understand
why the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein didn't withdraw from Kuwait. After all,
said Percy, wouldn't some intelligence chief or general tell him that he was
going to be defeated?
This was abject ignorance. If
someone had done so—told Saddam he was wrong—the man would be lucky if he were
only fired, and still pretty lucky if he wasn't thrown into prison, tortured,
and had his family punished or executed.
The supposed advantage of
democracy is that the media, academia, and others speak—where did I hear this
before?—truth to power. If you know you are not just going to be ignored, not
just that you are going to be punished, but that nobody is going to hear you
that is a disincentive to doing so.
But this goes far beyond liberal
or conservative, it sabotages the whole advantage of democracy. You can’t be an
anti-fascist or anti-Communist in the 1930s until the elite officially accepts
that? Maybe it would have been better to voice these concerns and have them
heeded before December 7, 1941 or before September 11, 2001. Maybe it would
have been better to have done something about it before tens of thousands of
lives had been snuffed out internationally, blighted domestically, resources
wasted, and society set back by decades.
Is this really the best we can do
in 2013?
Personally I am a social
democrat/liberal/centrist/conservative, reading from left to right. What works
works; what is true is true; what is wrong is wrong. Forgetting that rather
basic fact has been very bad for the West. It’s called honest pragmatism.
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