Birth Rates in Arab World Fall, But How Much and What Does it Mean?

By Barry Rubin

If you are interested in demographic trends in the Arab world--especially in the Gulf--this is an excellent article. The basic argument is that many reports are misleading because they don't distinguish between the increase in the local Arab population and the many foreign workers who are in these countries.

Also, it questions whether falling birth rates are a sign of modernization. So birth rates in much of the Arab world are falling but the precise figures and what it means is in dispute.

Having said this, the author believes that there is a very significant fall in birth rates leading toward a two-child-per-family type situation. This trend shows why demographic analyses regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict are often so misleading.

And these charts (here and here) are interesting regarding the often-made claim that the Arab population of Israel is growing steadily with political implications. In fact, the growth of Arab population has already peaked and is falling off in proportion to the Jewish population.